Final
Sat, Oct 3, 10:30 PM ET
Mountain America Stadium · 86° · wind 7 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Baylor–Arizona State) | 23–28 | – | 55–19 |
| Spread | Arizona State −5.7 | Arizona State −3.5 | Baylor −36 |
| Total | 51.3 | 49.5 | 74 |
| Arizona State win chance | 64% | – | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Arizona State −3.5 Lost★ Over 49.5 Won
Spread: 2.2 pts better than Vegas for Arizona State (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 1.8 pts above Vegas (52% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Arizona State by 5.711%
Baylor by 14+
25%
Baylor by 1–13
34%
Arizona State by 1–13
30%
Arizona State by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Baylor | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Arizona State |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.017 #73 | Offense EPA / play | −0.080 #98 |
| −0.069 #27 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.050 #36 |
| +0.1% #70 | Offense success rate | +0.9% #58 |
| −2.0% #44 | Defense success rate allowed | −2.1% #43 |
| +0.019 #78 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.006 #85 |
| −0.071 #83 | Passing EPA / play | −0.146 #106 |
| −0.155 #12 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.041 #36 |
| −0.038 #42 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.047 #38 |
| −0.6 #66 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +3.8 #34 |
| −3.5 #33 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +0.1 #69 |
| Situational | ||
| −1.6% #65 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +4.2% #25 |
| −0.0% #68 | Passing-down success allowed | −7.8% #3 |
| −0.39 #86 | Points per drive | +0.41 #36 |
| −0.62 #22 | Points per drive allowed | −0.24 #44 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.15 #57 | Line yards per rush | +0.10 #70 |
| −0.13 #46 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.02 #65 |
| −3.7% #45 | Runs stuffed at the line | +0.1% #100 |
| +3.3% #27 | Opponent runs stuffed | −1.2% #92 |
| −0.3% #94 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −0.5% #88 |
| +2.2% #22 | Havoc created | +0.5% #47 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.070 #107 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.010 #80 |
| +0.187 #39 | Passing explosiveness | +0.075 #84 |
| −0.55 #124 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.15 #33 |
| −0.268 #3 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.025 #79 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 50% #121 | Run rate | 56% #64 |
| −8.8 #65 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −10.6 #83 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Baylor | Season to date | Arizona State |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 2-2 |
| 2-0 | Conference | 1-1 |
| 3-0 | Home | 1-1 |
| 1-0 | Away | 0-1 |
| 4-1 | Against the spread | 2-2 |
| 2-3 | Over/under | 3-1 |
| 34.8 / 14.2 | Points for / against | 33.2 / 31.8 |
| +20.6 | Avg margin | +1.5 |
| +9.3 | Avg vs. the spread | -7.8 |
| 69.2 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 55.5 |
Baylor: last 4 games
| W23-13 | |
| W36-19 | |
| W44-3 | |
| L16-17 |
Arizona State: last 3 games
| W24-17 | |
| L20-48 | |
| W70-7 |
