Final
Sat, Sep 5, 12:30 PM ET
Acrisure Stadium · 76° · wind 5 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Miami (OH)–Pittsburgh) | 17–33 | – | 14–59 |
| Spread | Pittsburgh −15.7 | Pittsburgh −16.5 | Pittsburgh −45 |
| Total | 49.7 | 47.5 | 73 |
| Pittsburgh win chance | 84% | – | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Miami (OH) +16.5 Lost★ Over 47.5 Won
Spread: 0.8 pts better than Vegas for Miami (OH) (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 2.2 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Pittsburgh by 15.73%
Miami (OH) by 14+
13%
Miami (OH) by 1–13
30%
Pittsburgh by 1–13
54%
Pittsburgh by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Miami (OH) | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Pittsburgh |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.081 #102 | Offense EPA / play | +0.013 #47 |
| +0.061 #78 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.041 #24 |
| −4.1% #108 | Offense success rate | +0.1% #50 |
| +2.9% #82 | Defense success rate allowed | −2.5% #18 |
| −0.067 #96 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.019 #65 |
| −0.061 #90 | Passing EPA / play | +0.040 #35 |
| +0.061 #81 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.059 #17 |
| +0.076 #79 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.022 #32 |
| −4.4 #92 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +4.6 #22 |
| +2.7 #76 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −0.4 #47 |
| Situational | ||
| −3.1% #93 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +0.5% #46 |
| +2.4% #75 | Passing-down success allowed | −0.8% #29 |
| −0.57 #94 | Points per drive | +0.37 #37 |
| +0.70 #74 | Points per drive allowed | +0.16 #36 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.11 #61 | Line yards per rush | −0.16 #74 |
| +0.08 #61 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.20 #16 |
| +1.0% #68 | Runs stuffed at the line | +2.0% #90 |
| −0.8% #66 | Opponent runs stuffed | +2.7% #10 |
| −0.5% #52 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +1.4% #107 |
| −0.5% #71 | Havoc created | +2.2% #15 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.025 #116 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.005 #58 |
| +0.040 #30 | Passing explosiveness | +0.041 #29 |
| −0.22 #102 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.06 #57 |
| −0.050 #34 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.009 #102 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 52% #60 | Run rate | 49% #111 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Miami (OH) | Season to date | Pittsburgh |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 5-0 |
| 0-1 | Conference | 2-0 |
| 2-1 | Home | 4-0 |
| 0-2 | Away | 1-0 |
| 3-2 | Against the spread | 4-1 |
| 4-1 | Over/under | 2-3 |
| 26.8 / 29.2 | Points for / against | 38.4 / 13.4 |
| -2.4 | Avg margin | +25.0 |
| -4.9 | Avg vs. the spread | +7.5 |
| 50.0 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 57.8 |
Miami (OH): last games
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Pittsburgh: last games
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