Final
Sat, Sep 12, 3:30 PM ET
JMA Wireless Dome · Indoors
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (California–Syracuse) | 19–38 | – | 21–18 |
| Spread | Syracuse −18.1 | Syracuse −4 | California −3 |
| Total | 57.1 | 56.5 | 39 |
| Syracuse win chance | 87% | – | – |
Line moved from California −1.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Syracuse −4 Lost★ Over 56.5 Lost
Spread: 14.1 pts better than Vegas for Syracuse (sides with a gap this size have won 46% in the backtest). Total: 0.6 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Syracuse by 18.12%
California by 14+
11%
California by 1–13
27%
Syracuse by 1–13
60%
Syracuse by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| California | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Syracuse |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.092 #111 | Offense EPA / play | +0.007 #54 |
| +0.134 #111 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.031 #64 |
| −4.5% #113 | Offense success rate | +0.1% #55 |
| +6.1% #119 | Defense success rate allowed | +2.3% #71 |
| −0.138 #123 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.031 #42 |
| −0.083 #95 | Passing EPA / play | +0.001 #61 |
| +0.236 #136 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.029 #64 |
| −0.001 #53 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.009 #50 |
| −3.3 #86 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +3.6 #35 |
| +8.5 #115 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +2.7 #77 |
| Situational | ||
| −0.9% #70 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +0.3% #51 |
| −1.8% #30 | Passing-down success allowed | +0.2% #50 |
| −0.68 #98 | Points per drive | +0.97 #25 |
| +0.69 #78 | Points per drive allowed | +1.10 #100 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.31 #105 | Line yards per rush | +0.02 #42 |
| +0.64 #137 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.37 #9 |
| +1.6% #80 | Runs stuffed at the line | −0.1% #56 |
| −5.4% #133 | Opponent runs stuffed | +3.5% #16 |
| +2.6% #125 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +1.7% #111 |
| +0.0% #59 | Havoc created | +0.4% #47 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.010 #66 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.011 #55 |
| +0.068 #45 | Passing explosiveness | +0.018 #65 |
| −0.44 #127 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.03 #47 |
| −0.016 #70 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.106 #37 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 46% #124 | Run rate | 48% #117 |
| +4.2 #25 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −39.2 #129 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| California | Season to date | Syracuse |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 2-2 |
| 1-1 | Conference | 0-2 |
| 1-2 | Home | 1-1 |
| 1-1 | Away | 1-1 |
| 1-4 | Against the spread | 1-3 |
| 2-3 | Over/under | 2-2 |
| 27.0 / 26.6 | Points for / against | 34.8 / 23.0 |
| +0.4 | Avg margin | +11.8 |
| -9.2 | Avg vs. the spread | +2.9 |
| 66.6 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 72.5 |
California: last 1 games
| L24-45 |
Syracuse: last 1 games
| W66-3 |
