Final
Sat, Sep 19, 12:00 PM ET
Memorial Stadium (Clemson, SC) · 87° · wind 3 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (North Carolina–Clemson) | 19–23 | – | 20–28 |
| Spread | Clemson −3.5 | Clemson −3 | Clemson −8 |
| Total | 42.0 | 44.5 | 48 |
| Clemson win chance | 59% | – | – |
Line moved from Clemson −9.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Clemson −3 Won★ Under 44.5 Lost
Spread: 0.5 pts better than Vegas for Clemson (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 2.5 pts below Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Clemson by 3.513%
North Carolina by 14+
28%
North Carolina by 1–13
34%
Clemson by 1–13
25%
Clemson by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| North Carolina | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Clemson |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.012 #66 | Offense EPA / play | −0.101 #105 |
| −0.041 #30 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.003 #39 |
| +3.1% #29 | Offense success rate | −4.5% #105 |
| +0.9% #55 | Defense success rate allowed | −2.8% #16 |
| −0.027 #69 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.109 #110 |
| −0.007 #62 | Passing EPA / play | −0.062 #88 |
| +0.023 #59 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.042 #66 |
| −0.124 #15 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.094 #21 |
| −7.7 #118 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −1.5 #62 |
| −6.3 #15 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −1.6 #44 |
| Situational | ||
| +1.3% #46 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −2.4% #83 |
| −2.9% #25 | Passing-down success allowed | +3.9% #92 |
| −0.57 #91 | Points per drive | −0.25 #67 |
| +0.16 #42 | Points per drive allowed | +0.29 #51 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.32 #12 | Line yards per rush | −0.29 #99 |
| +0.13 #68 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.10 #63 |
| −2.2% #25 | Runs stuffed at the line | +7.8% #136 |
| −3.6% #105 | Opponent runs stuffed | −2.0% #90 |
| +0.7% #85 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +2.3% #115 |
| −1.1% #81 | Havoc created | +1.8% #30 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.163 #127 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.157 #125 |
| −0.110 #110 | Passing explosiveness | −0.091 #103 |
| −0.38 #107 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.16 #72 |
| −0.215 #10 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.080 #111 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 49% #103 | Run rate | 45% #126 |
| −13.6 #79 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | +4.1 #11 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| North Carolina | Season to date | Clemson |
|---|---|---|
| 2-2 | Record | 3-2 |
| 0-1 | Conference | 2-1 |
| 1-1 | Home | 2-1 |
| 0-1 | Away | 1-1 |
| 2-2 | Against the spread | 2-3 |
| 2-2 | Over/under | 3-2 |
| 24.0 / 19.5 | Points for / against | 19.4 / 25.8 |
| +4.5 | Avg margin | -6.4 |
| +3.2 | Avg vs. the spread | -6.8 |
| 54.0 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 62.4 |
North Carolina: last 2 games
| W35-3 | |
| W15-10 |
Clemson: last 2 games
| W22-7 | |
| L10-51 |
