Final
Sat, Sep 19, 3:30 PM ET
California Memorial Stadium · 70° · wind 7 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Wagner–California) | 3–54 | – | 7–49 |
| Spread | California −50.9 | California −58.5 | California −42 |
| Total | 57.9 | 65.5 | 56 |
| California win chance | 100% | – | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Wagner +58.5 Won★ Under 65.5 Won
Spread: 7.6 pts better than Vegas for Wagner (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 7.6 pts below Vegas (52% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around California by 50.90%
Wagner by 14+
0%
Wagner by 1–13
1%
California by 1–13
99%
California by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Wagner | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | California |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.543 | Offense EPA / play | −0.090 #99 |
| +0.298 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.046 #71 |
| −21.6% | Offense success rate | −4.5% #106 |
| +12.3% | Defense success rate allowed | +2.2% #68 |
| −0.497 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.144 #121 |
| −0.398 | Passing EPA / play | −0.057 #85 |
| +0.299 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.143 #115 |
| +0.143 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.050 #32 |
| −26.9 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −2.5 #76 |
| +27.6 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +4.3 #91 |
| Situational | ||
| −17.8% | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −1.1% #70 |
| +11.3% | Passing-down success allowed | −2.8% #27 |
| −3.53 | Points per drive | −0.72 #100 |
| +4.38 | Points per drive allowed | +0.14 #39 |
| Trenches | ||
| −1.51 | Line yards per rush | −0.31 #102 |
| +0.69 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.31 #99 |
| +14.0% | Runs stuffed at the line | +2.9% #103 |
| −6.7% | Opponent runs stuffed | −3.7% #106 |
| +8.4% | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +1.4% #104 |
| −4.3% | Havoc created | −0.9% #73 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.154 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.040 #46 |
| −0.239 | Passing explosiveness | +0.051 #52 |
| −1.01 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.48 #127 |
| −0.107 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.081 #113 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 49% | Run rate | 46% #123 |
| +0.4 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | +0.8 #16 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Wagner | Season to date | California |
|---|---|---|
| 0-2 | Record | 2-3 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 1-1 |
| 0-0 | Home | 1-2 |
| 0-2 | Away | 1-1 |
| 1-1 | Against the spread | 1-4 |
| 1-1 | Over/under | 2-3 |
| 5.0 / 68.0 | Points for / against | 27.0 / 26.6 |
| -63.0 | Avg margin | +0.4 |
| -10.5 | Avg vs. the spread | -9.2 |
| 48.0 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 66.6 |
Wagner: last 1 games
| L3-87 |
