Final
Fri, Sep 25, 10:30 PM ET
California Memorial Stadium · 60° · wind 6 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Clemson–California) | 28–23 | – | 24–10 |
| Spread | Clemson −4.5 | Clemson −2.5 | Clemson −14 |
| Total | 50.5 | 52.5 | 34 |
| California win chance | 39% | – | – |
Line moved from Clemson −1.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Clemson −2.5 Won★ Under 52.5 Won
Spread: 2.0 pts better than Vegas for Clemson (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 2.0 pts below Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Clemson by 4.528%
Clemson by 14+
34%
Clemson by 1–13
27%
California by 1–13
12%
California by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Clemson | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | California |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.081 #98 | Offense EPA / play | −0.069 #93 |
| −0.036 #32 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.075 #84 |
| −3.9% #100 | Offense success rate | −3.4% #93 |
| −2.7% #21 | Defense success rate allowed | +2.3% #73 |
| −0.065 #92 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.187 #126 |
| −0.030 #77 | Passing EPA / play | +0.013 #54 |
| +0.071 #91 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.132 #107 |
| −0.180 #11 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.015 #49 |
| −0.5 #66 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −4.2 #88 |
| −0.6 #50 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +4.9 #89 |
| Situational | ||
| −1.5% #74 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +0.7% #56 |
| +4.6% #101 | Passing-down success allowed | −2.4% #30 |
| −0.36 #81 | Points per drive | −0.67 #95 |
| +0.30 #54 | Points per drive allowed | +0.56 #72 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.22 #88 | Line yards per rush | −0.23 #92 |
| +0.19 #78 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.36 #114 |
| +5.8% #125 | Runs stuffed at the line | +2.5% #97 |
| −2.3% #89 | Opponent runs stuffed | −7.3% #137 |
| +2.6% #116 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +2.3% #110 |
| +0.9% #41 | Havoc created | −2.0% #99 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.095 #109 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.068 #96 |
| −0.067 #96 | Passing explosiveness | +0.039 #61 |
| +0.06 #45 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.56 #127 |
| +0.107 #121 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.083 #113 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 47% #115 | Run rate | 43% #131 |
| +2.1 #9 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −17.5 #113 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Clemson | Season to date | California |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 2-3 |
| 2-1 | Conference | 1-1 |
| 2-1 | Home | 1-2 |
| 1-1 | Away | 1-1 |
| 2-3 | Against the spread | 1-4 |
| 3-2 | Over/under | 2-3 |
| 19.4 / 25.8 | Points for / against | 27.0 / 26.6 |
| -6.4 | Avg margin | +0.4 |
| -6.8 | Avg vs. the spread | -9.2 |
| 62.4 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 66.6 |
Clemson: last 3 games
| W28-20 | |
| W22-7 | |
| L10-51 |
