Final
Sat, Sep 26, 6:30 PM ET
Hard Rock Stadium · 79° · wind 5 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (CMU–Miami) | 7–47 | – | 3–52 |
| Spread | Miami −39.7 | Miami −41.5 | Miami −49 |
| Total | 53.4 | 52.5 | 55 |
| Miami win chance | 99% | – | – |
Line moved from Miami −42.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ CMU +41.5 Lost★ Over 52.5 Won
Spread: 1.8 pts better than Vegas for Central Michigan (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 0.9 pts above Vegas (52% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Miami by 39.70%
CMU by 14+
1%
CMU by 1–13
5%
Miami by 1–13
95%
Miami by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| CMU | Opponent-adjusted, vs. an average FBS team | Miami |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.136 #116 | Offense EPA / play | +0.250 #2 |
| +0.137 #120 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.103 #12 |
| −6.0% #127 | Offense success rate | +10.3% #3 |
| +6.8% #132 | Defense success rate allowed | −2.9% #31 |
| +0.066 #50 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.141 #22 |
| −0.412 #137 | Passing EPA / play | +0.358 #1 |
| +0.106 #107 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.080 #28 |
| +0.065 #79 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.147 #14 |
| −13.2 #136 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +12.6 #6 |
| +3.9 #91 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −9.0 #8 |
| Situational | ||
| −7.7% #121 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +5.2% #16 |
| +6.3% #126 | Passing-down success allowed | −4.9% #16 |
| −1.38 #132 | Points per drive | +2.50 #2 |
| +0.91 #119 | Points per drive allowed | −0.67 #21 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.22 #45 | Line yards per rush | +0.48 #14 |
| +0.39 #126 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.30 #21 |
| −4.7% #29 | Runs stuffed at the line | −5.9% #13 |
| −2.4% #107 | Opponent runs stuffed | +4.2% #19 |
| −1.6% #68 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −7.6% #1 |
| −2.3% #110 | Havoc created | +0.5% #50 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.142 #18 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.076 #108 |
| −0.328 #138 | Passing explosiveness | +0.059 #87 |
| −0.32 #97 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.05 #44 |
| −0.169 #11 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.256 #3 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 70% #6 | Run rate | 53% #96 |
| −15.2 #106 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −18.6 #124 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| CMU | Season to date | Miami |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 5-0 |
| 1-0 | Conference | 3-0 |
| 3-0 | Home | 2-0 |
| 0-2 | Away | 3-0 |
| 2-3 | Against the spread | 4-1 |
| 2-3 | Over/under | 4-1 |
| 17.6 / 25.4 | Points for / against | 49.6 / 9.8 |
| -7.8 | Avg margin | +39.8 |
| -1.9 | Avg vs. the spread | +7.8 |
| 46.6 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 48.8 |
Central Michigan: last 3 games
| W24-10 | |
| W13-10 | |
| L7-38 |
Miami: last 3 games
| W33-20 | |
| W77-7 | |
| W45-6 |
