Final
Sat, Sep 26, 9:00 PM ET
Gerald J. Ford Stadium · 85° · wind 9 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Missouri State–SMU) | 13–44 | – | 24–34 |
| Spread | SMU −31.4 | SMU −30.5 | SMU −10 |
| Total | 56.5 | 60.5 | 58 |
| SMU win chance | 97% | – | – |
Line moved from SMU −34.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ SMU −30.5 Lost★ Under 60.5 Won
Spread: 0.9 pts better than Vegas for SMU (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 4.0 pts below Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around SMU by 31.40%
Missouri State by 14+
2%
Missouri State by 1–13
12%
SMU by 1–13
86%
SMU by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Missouri State | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.080 #102 | Offense EPA / play | +0.130 #17 |
| +0.178 #133 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.073 #24 |
| −4.2% #109 | Offense success rate | +8.3% #8 |
| +7.0% #134 | Defense success rate allowed | −4.0% #20 |
| −0.052 #108 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.067 #49 |
| −0.086 #90 | Passing EPA / play | +0.243 #7 |
| +0.155 #128 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.096 #22 |
| +0.190 #117 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.057 #33 |
| −8.9 #125 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +6.1 #20 |
| +9.2 #127 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −4.2 #27 |
| Situational | ||
| −11.1% #132 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +7.8% #10 |
| +5.5% #122 | Passing-down success allowed | −5.6% #12 |
| −0.66 #97 | Points per drive | +0.75 #27 |
| +1.56 #132 | Points per drive allowed | −0.43 #31 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.01 #88 | Line yards per rush | +0.29 #37 |
| +0.41 #128 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.22 #32 |
| −0.8% #90 | Runs stuffed at the line | −2.3% #63 |
| −3.6% #121 | Opponent runs stuffed | +4.5% #15 |
| +1.1% #116 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −2.4% #47 |
| −1.5% #90 | Havoc created | +2.6% #14 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.023 #84 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.004 #71 |
| +0.186 #39 | Passing explosiveness | +0.195 #33 |
| −0.42 #114 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.15 #30 |
| +0.122 #113 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.092 #102 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 56% #74 | Run rate | 52% #110 |
| −11.0 #73 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −2.1 #24 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Missouri State | Season to date | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| 1-3 | Record | 4-1 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 2-1 |
| 1-1 | Home | 3-0 |
| 0-2 | Away | 1-1 |
| 2-2 | Against the spread | 1-3-1 |
| 2-2 | Over/under | 2-3 |
| 24.0 / 32.0 | Points for / against | 34.6 / 23.0 |
| -8.0 | Avg margin | +11.6 |
| +6.1 | Avg vs. the spread | -5.3 |
| 48.5 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 63.8 |
Missouri State: last 3 games
| L24-30 | |
| W48-14 | |
| L0-50 |
SMU: last 3 games
| L31-41 | |
| W56-10 | |
| W27-24 |
