Final
Sat, Oct 3, 7:30 PM ET
Memorial Stadium (Clemson, SC) · 77° · wind 4 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Miami–Clemson) | 32–18 | – | 41–13 |
| Spread | Miami −13.9 | Miami −14 | Miami −28 |
| Total | 50.9 | 49.5 | 54 |
| Clemson win chance | 19% | – | – |
Line moved from Miami −7 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Clemson +14 Lost★ Over 49.5 Won
Spread: 0.1 pts better than Vegas for Clemson (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 1.4 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Miami by 13.950%
Miami by 14+
31%
Miami by 1–13
15%
Clemson by 1–13
4%
Clemson by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Miami | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Clemson |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.288 #1 | Offense EPA / play | −0.086 #98 |
| −0.087 #13 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.108 #10 |
| +11.1% #2 | Offense success rate | −4.5% #103 |
| −2.9% #22 | Defense success rate allowed | −3.3% #19 |
| +0.137 #11 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.037 #81 |
| +0.429 #1 | Passing EPA / play | −0.088 #89 |
| −0.064 #22 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.078 #87 |
| −0.127 #19 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.267 #2 |
| +14.5 #5 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −0.4 #66 |
| −8.8 #8 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −3.1 #32 |
| Situational | ||
| +8.7% #6 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −2.9% #84 |
| −3.4% #21 | Passing-down success allowed | +2.4% #82 |
| +2.99 #3 | Points per drive | −0.21 #74 |
| −0.26 #22 | Points per drive allowed | +0.04 #38 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.42 #5 | Line yards per rush | −0.26 #101 |
| −0.34 #16 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.19 #83 |
| −4.4% #8 | Runs stuffed at the line | +5.2% #121 |
| +5.1% #9 | Opponent runs stuffed | −1.3% #74 |
| −5.5% #1 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +2.1% #111 |
| +1.6% #31 | Havoc created | +1.0% #35 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.032 #81 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.018 #74 |
| −0.020 #80 | Passing explosiveness | −0.108 #113 |
| −0.02 #56 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.23 #25 |
| −0.222 #9 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.013 #76 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 49% #102 | Run rate | 50% #90 |
| −17.9 #123 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | +0.5 #13 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Miami | Season to date | Clemson |
|---|---|---|
| 5-0 | Record | 3-2 |
| 3-0 | Conference | 2-1 |
| 2-0 | Home | 2-1 |
| 3-0 | Away | 1-1 |
| 4-1 | Against the spread | 2-3 |
| 4-1 | Over/under | 3-2 |
| 49.6 / 9.8 | Points for / against | 19.4 / 25.8 |
| +39.8 | Avg margin | -6.4 |
| +7.8 | Avg vs. the spread | -6.8 |
| 48.8 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 62.4 |
Miami: last 4 games
| W52-3 | |
| W33-20 | |
| W77-7 | |
| W45-6 |
Clemson: last 4 games
| W24-10 | |
| W28-20 | |
| W22-7 | |
| L10-51 |
