Final
Sat, Oct 3, 12:00 PM ET
Kenan Stadium · 71° · wind 9 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Notre Dame–North Carolina) | 34–12 | – | 37–26 |
| Spread | Notre Dame −21.6 | Notre Dame −21 | Notre Dame −11 |
| Total | 45.5 | 46.5 | 63 |
| North Carolina win chance | 8% | – | – |
Line moved from Notre Dame −23.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Notre Dame −21 Lost★ Under 46.5 Lost
Spread: 0.6 pts better than Vegas for Notre Dame (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 1.0 pts below Vegas (52% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Notre Dame by 21.669%
Notre Dame by 14+
23%
Notre Dame by 1–13
7%
North Carolina by 1–13
1%
North Carolina by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Notre Dame | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | North Carolina |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.212 #3 | Offense EPA / play | +0.001 #61 |
| −0.226 #1 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.015 #54 |
| +10.6% #5 | Offense success rate | +5.0% #22 |
| −9.1% #4 | Defense success rate allowed | +0.5% #65 |
| +0.133 #28 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.065 #54 |
| +0.292 #5 | Passing EPA / play | −0.043 #75 |
| −0.182 #5 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.072 #92 |
| −0.263 #3 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.065 #34 |
| +13.2 #7 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −5.2 #92 |
| −13.9 #2 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −6.2 #14 |
| Situational | ||
| −2.0% #71 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +2.2% #36 |
| −7.1% #7 | Passing-down success allowed | −2.3% #43 |
| +2.88 #2 | Points per drive | −0.36 #83 |
| −1.35 #3 | Points per drive allowed | −0.44 #33 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.22 #49 | Line yards per rush | +0.62 #4 |
| −0.46 #14 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.17 #95 |
| −6.4% #9 | Runs stuffed at the line | −5.5% #21 |
| +3.4% #26 | Opponent runs stuffed | −5.1% #132 |
| −5.1% #11 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −1.9% #58 |
| +5.8% #1 | Havoc created | −1.9% #102 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.087 #113 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.132 #124 |
| −0.010 #111 | Passing explosiveness | +0.041 #91 |
| −0.42 #110 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.20 #81 |
| −0.264 #4 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.148 #16 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 55% #73 | Run rate | 55% #86 |
| −3.0 #27 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −6.1 #46 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Notre Dame | Season to date | North Carolina |
|---|---|---|
| 5-0 | Record | 2-2 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 0-1 |
| 2-0 | Home | 1-1 |
| 2-0 | Away | 0-1 |
| 3-2 | Against the spread | 2-2 |
| 3-2 | Over/under | 2-2 |
| 41.2 / 11.8 | Points for / against | 24.0 / 19.5 |
| +29.4 | Avg margin | +4.5 |
| +0.9 | Avg vs. the spread | +3.2 |
| 54.2 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 54.0 |
Notre Dame: last 4 games
| W49-10 | |
| W27-10 | |
| W52-0 | |
| W41-13 |
North Carolina: last 3 games
| L20-28 | |
| W35-3 | |
| W15-10 |
