Beaver projection
Sat, Oct 10, 3:30 PM ET
Notre Dame Stadium · 74° · wind 13 mph
Three numbers, one game
| ★ BEAVER | ☆ SAM | VEGAS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Stanford–Notre Dame) | 7–48 | 8–46 | – |
| Spread | Notre Dame −41.9 | Notre Dame −37.7 | Notre Dame −38.5 |
| Total | 54.9 | 53.9 | 54.5 |
| Notre Dame win chance | 100% | – | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Notre Dame −38.5 ★ Over 54.5
Spread: 3.4 pts better than Vegas for Notre Dame (sides with a gap this size have won 52% in the backtest). Total: 0.4 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
Sam’s Pick
☆ Stanford +38.5 ☆ Under 54.5
Spread: 0.8 pts better than Vegas for Stanford. Total: 0.6 pts below Vegas.
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Notre Dame by 41.90%
Stanford by 14+
0%
Stanford by 1–13
4%
Notre Dame by 1–13
96%
Notre Dame by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Stanford | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Notre Dame |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.001 #65 | Offense EPA / play | +0.230 #5 |
| +0.175 #122 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.172 #5 |
| −4.2% #96 | Offense success rate | +11.5% #4 |
| +6.1% #111 | Defense success rate allowed | −7.8% #5 |
| −0.063 #90 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.117 #16 |
| +0.047 #47 | Passing EPA / play | +0.331 #4 |
| +0.160 #120 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.153 #8 |
| +0.165 #110 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.199 #10 |
| −6.0 #97 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +15.5 #3 |
| +8.5 #117 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −10.8 #4 |
| Situational | ||
| −6.9% #115 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −1.4% #67 |
| +9.7% #132 | Passing-down success allowed | −5.2% #10 |
| −0.78 #97 | Points per drive | +2.98 #1 |
| +1.49 #116 | Points per drive allowed | −0.74 #6 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.36 #109 | Line yards per rush | +0.19 #22 |
| +0.34 #109 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.37 #15 |
| +5.0% #122 | Runs stuffed at the line | −4.0% #9 |
| −4.9% #123 | Opponent runs stuffed | +4.2% #14 |
| −0.3% #60 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −3.6% #11 |
| −1.7% #91 | Havoc created | +6.5% #1 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.010 #65 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.122 #115 |
| +0.116 #28 | Passing explosiveness | −0.068 #100 |
| −0.15 #74 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.42 #108 |
| −0.074 #54 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.264 #4 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 46% #125 | Run rate | 53% #51 |
| +3.2 #8 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −1.7 #19 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Stanford | Season to date | Notre Dame |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 5-0 |
| 1-3 | Conference | 0-0 |
| 2-1 | Home | 2-0 |
| 0-2 | Away | 2-0 |
| 2-3 | Against the spread | 3-2 |
| 4-1 | Over/under | 3-2 |
| 17.4 / 38.2 | Points for / against | 41.2 / 11.8 |
| -20.8 | Avg margin | +29.4 |
| -11.4 | Avg vs. the spread | +0.9 |
| 52.6 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 54.2 |
Stanford: last 5 games
| L3-57 | |
| W34-27 | |
| L7-35 | |
| L6-45 | |
| W37-27 |
Notre Dame: last 5 games
| W37-26 | |
| W49-10 | |
| W27-10 | |
| W52-0 | |
| W41-13 |
