College football · 2026

Playoff Race

Rest of the season simulated thousands of times with Beaver’s ratings · 12-team field, top 4 seeds get byes

Most likely field

the 12 teams most likely to make it, by average seed

99% to make it · bye

98% to make it · bye

95% to make it · bye

97% to make it · bye

89% to make it

88% to make it

70% to make it

71% to make it

62% to make it

58% to make it

38% to make it

44% to make it

Conference races

Conference	Favorite	Title chance	Next most likely
ACC	4Miami	78%	Pittsburgh 7% · SMU 4%
Mountain West	New Mexico	64%	North Dakota State 17% · UNLV 12%
Pac-12	23Boise State	61%	Oregon State 19% · Fresno State 11%
Conference USA	Liberty	61%	Jacksonville State 19% · Florida International 5%
Sun Belt	James Madison	60%	Louisiana 16% · Georgia State 8%
Mid-American	Toledo	54%	Western Michigan 26% · Ohio 12%
SEC	2Georgia	43%	Alabama 34% · Texas 20%
Big Ten	5Ohio State	42%	Indiana 25% · Oregon 17%
Big 12	12Utah	38%	Texas Tech 31% · BYU 18%
American Athletic	UTSA	31%	North Texas 21% · Memphis 21%

Every team

#	Team	Conference	Record	Projected	Rating	Conf. title	Playoff	Title
1	3Notre Dame	FBS Independents	5-0	11.2-0.8	+28.1	0%	99%	18%
2	2Georgia	SEC	5-0	10.8-1.2	+29.7	43%	98%	21%
3	6Alabama	SEC	5-0	10.6-1.4	+28.9	34%	97%	19%
4	4Miami	ACC	5-0	10.8-1.2	+25.2	78%	95%	10%
5	1Texas	SEC	4-0	10.3-1.7	+25.8	20%	89%	9%
6	5Ohio State	Big Ten	4-1	9.6-2.4	+27.7	42%	88%	12%
7	7Indiana	Big Ten	5-0	10.0-2.0	+20.7	25%	71%	3%
8	12Utah	Big 12	4-0	10.3-1.7	+18.9	38%	70%	2%
9	11Texas Tech	Big 12	5-0	10.5-1.5	+16.1	31%	62%	1%
10	13Oregon	Big Ten	3-1	9.1-2.9	+22.2	17%	58%	3%
11	James Madison	Sun Belt	5-0	10.5-1.5	+6.8	60%	44%	<1%
12	10LSU	SEC	4-1	8.4-3.6	+20.7	2%	38%	1%
13	23Boise State	Pac-12	4-1	8.7-2.3	+10.1	61%	38%	<1%
14	8BYU	Big 12	4-0	9.2-2.8	+15.3	18%	33%	<1%
15	New Mexico	Mountain West	4-1	9.9-2.1	+5.7	64%	27%	<1%
16	21UCLA	Big Ten	4-0	9.2-2.8	+14.1	6%	25%	<1%
17	22Houston	Big 12	4-1	8.9-3.1	+14.1	7%	20%	<1%
18	15Tennessee	SEC	4-1	7.9-4.1	+15.5	<1%	12%	<1%
19	Toledo	Mid-American	4-1	9.8-2.2	+2.5	54%	12%	0%
20	20Iowa	Big Ten	4-1	8.4-3.6	+12.8	2%	11%	<1%
21	25Pittsburgh	ACC	5-0	9.3-2.7	+9.4	7%	11%	<1%
22	Nebraska	Big Ten	5-0	8.5-3.5	+12.7	3%	11%	<1%
23	Liberty	Conference USA	4-1	9.6-2.4	+0.6	61%	8%	0%
24	14Missouri	SEC	4-1	7.6-4.4	+14.6	<1%	7%	<1%
25	16Florida	SEC	4-1	7.6-4.4	+14.9	<1%	7%	<1%
26	19USC	Big Ten	5-1	7.9-4.1	+14.1	1%	7%	<1%
27	UTSA	American Athletic	4-1	8.9-3.1	+3.1	31%	7%	0%
28	Northwestern	Big Ten	3-1	7.9-4.1	+13.3	1%	6%	<1%
29	Wake Forest	ACC	4-1	8.7-3.3	+8.8	4%	6%	<1%
30	9Ole Miss	SEC	3-1	7.4-4.6	+13.8	<1%	5%	<1%
31	24SMU	ACC	4-1	8.4-3.6	+8.8	4%	4%	0%
32	Arizona	Big 12	4-1	8.0-4.0	+9.6	2%	4%	<1%
33	Memphis	American Athletic	4-1	8.6-3.4	+1.5	21%	3%	0%
34	Baylor	Big 12	4-1	7.6-4.4	+9.5	3%	3%	<1%
35	17Mississippi State	SEC	4-1	7.7-4.3	+11.1	<1%	3%	<1%
36	Wisconsin	Big Ten	4-1	8.0-4.0	+8.9	2%	3%	<1%
37	Duke	ACC	4-0	8.1-3.9	+5.9	2%	2%	0%
38	Texas A&M	SEC	3-2	6.5-5.5	+15.2	<1%	2%	<1%
39	Kansas State	Big 12	3-1	7.6-4.4	+7.1	1%	2%	<1%
40	North Dakota State	Mountain West	5-0	9.3-2.6	−4.7	17%	2%	0%
41	Louisiana	Sun Belt	4-1	8.8-3.2	−2.0	16%	1%	0%
42	Oregon State	Pac-12	3-2	6.8-4.2	+3.3	19%	1%	0%
43	North Texas	American Athletic	3-2	8.0-4.0	+1.5	21%	1%	0%
44	Kentucky	SEC	4-1	6.9-5.1	+8.9	<1%	1%	<1%
45	South Florida	American Athletic	4-1	8.2-3.8	−1.0	6%	1%	0%
46	Fresno State	Pac-12	4-1	7.1-3.9	−1.1	11%	1%	0%
47	Oklahoma	SEC	2-2	5.8-6.2	+13.1	<1%	1%	0%
48	Georgia State	Sun Belt	4-1	8.0-4.0	−2.9	8%	1%	0%
49	Virginia Tech	ACC	4-1	7.5-4.5	+5.2	1%	<1%	0%
50	NC State	ACC	3-2	7.3-4.7	+5.6	1%	<1%	0%
51	Michigan	Big Ten	3-2	6.5-5.5	+10.1	<1%	<1%	<1%
52	Clemson	ACC	3-2	7.1-4.9	+5.1	1%	<1%	0%
53	Louisville	ACC	2-3	6.6-5.4	+9.8	<1%	<1%	0%
54	Florida State	ACC	3-2	6.2-5.8	+7.3	1%	<1%	0%
55	Western Michigan	Mid-American	3-2	8.1-3.9	−1.7	26%	<1%	0%
56	Minnesota	Big Ten	4-1	6.7-5.3	+4.9	<1%	<1%	0%
57	UCF	Big 12	3-2	6.6-5.4	+4.2	<1%	<1%	0%
58	East Carolina	American Athletic	2-2	7.1-4.9	−1.5	9%	<1%	0%
59	Virginia	ACC	3-2	6.6-5.4	+3.9	<1%	<1%	0%
60	Texas State	Pac-12	2-3	5.7-5.3	+2.2	6%	<1%	0%
61	Louisiana Tech	Sun Belt	2-2	7.0-5.0	−3.7	5%	<1%	0%
62	Penn State	Big Ten	3-2	6.9-5.1	+5.7	0%	<1%	0%
63	18Oklahoma State	Big 12	3-1	6.0-6.0	+0.4	<1%	<1%	0%
64	Army	American Athletic	2-2	6.6-5.4	−2.2	5%	<1%	0%
65	Kansas	Big 12	2-2	5.6-6.4	+5.7	<1%	<1%	0%
66	UNLV	Mountain West	3-2	7.5-4.5	−4.6	12%	<1%	0%
67	Tulsa	American Athletic	3-2	6.8-5.2	−5.4	1%	<1%	0%
68	Florida Atlantic	American Athletic	4-1	6.8-5.2	−5.6	2%	<1%	0%
69	Cincinnati	Big 12	4-1	6.2-5.8	−0.5	<1%	<1%	0%
70	Jacksonville State	Conference USA	3-2	7.3-4.7	−6.9	19%	<1%	0%
71	Auburn	SEC	3-2	5.8-6.2	+8.3	0%	<1%	0%
72	TCU	Big 12	2-3	4.9-7.1	+5.2	<1%	<1%	0%
73	App State	Sun Belt	3-1	7.2-4.8	−8.1	2%	<1%	0%
74	Air Force	Mountain West	3-1	7.3-4.7	−8.5	3%	<1%	0%
75	South Carolina	SEC	2-3	4.8-7.2	+9.4	0%	<1%	0%
76	Washington	Big Ten	3-2	5.7-6.3	+5.1	0%	<1%	0%
77	Vanderbilt	SEC	3-2	5.2-6.8	+4.6	0%	<1%	0%
78	San Diego State	Pac-12	2-3	4.6-6.4	−5.1	2%	<1%	0%
79	Ohio	Mid-American	3-2	7.7-4.3	−5.7	12%	<1%	0%
80	Arkansas State	Sun Belt	2-3	6.1-5.9	−6.2	1%	<1%	0%
81	Troy	Sun Belt	3-2	6.3-5.7	−6.4	2%	<1%	0%
82	South Alabama	Sun Belt	3-2	6.0-6.0	−9.8	1%	<1%	0%
83	North Carolina	ACC	2-2	5.6-6.4	+3.3	<1%	0%	0%
84	Illinois	Big Ten	2-3	4.4-7.6	+3.2	0%	0%	0%
85	Arizona State	Big 12	2-2	5.6-6.4	+2.4	<1%	0%	0%
86	Iowa State	Big 12	3-2	5.4-6.6	+0.7	0%	0%	0%
87	Georgia Tech	ACC	1-3	3.8-8.2	+0.3	<1%	0%	0%
88	Michigan State	Big Ten	2-3	4.2-7.8	−0.9	0%	0%	0%
89	Arkansas	SEC	2-3	3.4-8.6	−1.4	0%	0%	0%
90	Purdue	Big Ten	2-3	4.3-7.7	−1.4	0%	0%	0%
91	West Virginia	Big 12	3-2	4.9-7.1	−2.1	0%	0%	0%
92	Syracuse	ACC	2-2	4.5-7.5	−2.5	0%	0%	0%
93	Colorado	Big 12	2-3	4.1-7.9	−2.7	0%	0%	0%
94	Maryland	Big Ten	2-3	4.1-7.9	−3.4	0%	0%	0%
95	Georgia Southern	Sun Belt	2-3	5.7-6.3	−4.8	3%	0%	0%
96	Tulane	American Athletic	2-2	5.9-6.1	−5.3	2%	0%	0%
97	Rutgers	Big Ten	1-4	2.7-9.3	−5.7	0%	0%	0%
98	Utah State	Pac-12	1-4	3.6-7.4	−5.8	1%	0%	0%
99	California	ACC	2-3	4.1-7.9	−6.2	<1%	0%	0%
100	Temple	American Athletic	2-3	6.0-6.0	−6.4	1%	0%	0%
101	UConn	FBS Independents	2-3	5.6-6.4	−7.1	0%	0%	0%
102	Washington State	Pac-12	1-4	2.9-8.1	−8.2	<1%	0%	0%
103	Navy	American Athletic	1-3	4.1-7.9	−8.6	<1%	0%	0%
104	Boston College	ACC	2-3	3.1-8.9	−8.7	0%	0%	0%
105	Sam Houston	Conference USA	1-3	5.3-6.7	−9.5	5%	0%	0%
106	Kennesaw State	Conference USA	1-3	5.1-6.9	−9.8	4%	0%	0%
107	Southern Miss	Sun Belt	1-4	4.1-7.9	−9.8	<1%	0%	0%
108	Marshall	Sun Belt	3-2	6.5-5.5	−10.3	1%	0%	0%
109	Florida International	Conference USA	2-2	6.1-5.9	−10.3	5%	0%	0%
110	Miami (OH)	Mid-American	2-3	5.9-6.1	−10.4	1%	0%	0%
111	UAB	American Athletic	3-2	5.4-6.6	−10.6	<1%	0%	0%
112	Colorado State	Pac-12	2-3	3.6-7.4	−10.8	<1%	0%	0%
113	Central Michigan	Mid-American	3-2	6.8-5.2	−11.2	3%	0%	0%
114	Stanford	ACC	2-3	3.8-8.2	−11.2	0%	0%	0%
115	Rice	American Athletic	1-4	3.2-8.8	−11.4	<1%	0%	0%
116	Delaware	Conference USA	2-3	5.7-6.3	−11.5	3%	0%	0%
117	Eastern Michigan	Mid-American	3-3	5.5-6.5	−12.4	2%	0%	0%
118	Western Kentucky	Conference USA	1-4	4.2-7.8	−12.6	1%	0%	0%
119	Nevada	Mountain West	1-3	4.0-8.0	−12.7	<1%	0%	0%
120	Old Dominion	Sun Belt	1-4	3.6-8.4	−12.9	0%	0%	0%
121	Coastal Carolina	Sun Belt	1-4	3.2-8.8	−14.0	0%	0%	0%
122	San José State	Mountain West	3-2	6.5-6.5	−14.1	2%	0%	0%
123	New Mexico State	Conference USA	2-3	4.8-7.2	−14.5	2%	0%	0%
124	Hawai'i	Mountain West	1-4	3.7-8.3	−14.7	0%	0%	0%
125	Missouri State	Conference USA	1-3	3.9-8.1	−15.1	1%	0%	0%
126	Northern Illinois	Mountain West	0-4	3.4-8.6	−15.3	<1%	0%	0%
127	Akron	Mid-American	1-4	4.1-7.9	−15.8	<1%	0%	0%
128	Wyoming	Mountain West	2-3	4.5-7.5	−17.0	<1%	0%	0%
129	Kent State	Mid-American	2-3	4.4-7.6	−18.4	<1%	0%	0%
130	Buffalo	Mid-American	2-3	4.6-7.4	−19.0	<1%	0%	0%
131	Massachusetts	Mid-American	4-1	6.6-5.4	−19.1	<1%	0%	0%
132	Ball State	Mid-American	1-4	3.7-8.3	−19.4	0%	0%	0%
133	Middle Tennessee	Conference USA	2-3	4.0-8.0	−19.7	<1%	0%	0%
134	Bowling Green	Mid-American	1-4	3.7-8.3	−20.6	<1%	0%	0%
135	UTEP	Mountain West	1-4	3.0-9.0	−22.3	<1%	0%	0%
136	Sacramento State	Mid-American	1-4	2.8-9.2	−23.0	0%	0%	0%
137	UL Monroe	Sun Belt	0-5	1.0-11.0	−23.1	0%	0%	0%
138	Charlotte	American Athletic	0-5	0.7-11.3	−26.2	0%	0%	0%