Final
Sat, Sep 5, 8:00 PM ET
Lanny and Sharon Martin Stadium · 72° · wind 10 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (SDST–Northwestern) | 11–40 | – | 18–34 |
| Spread | Northwestern −29.4 | Northwestern −14 | Northwestern −16 |
| Total | 50.7 | 49.5 | 52 |
| Northwestern win chance | 97% | – | – |
Line moved from Northwestern −12.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Northwestern −14 Won★ Over 49.5 Won
Spread: 15.4 pts better than Vegas for Northwestern (sides with a gap this size have won 46% in the backtest). Total: 1.2 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Northwestern by 29.40%
South Dakota State by 14+
3%
South Dakota State by 1–13
13%
Northwestern by 1–13
83%
Northwestern by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| SDST | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Northwestern |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.219 | Offense EPA / play | −0.019 #68 |
| +0.196 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.011 #41 |
| −8.8% | Offense success rate | +0.0% #55 |
| +10.1% | Defense success rate allowed | +1.7% #62 |
| −0.196 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.004 #53 |
| −0.226 | Passing EPA / play | −0.010 #63 |
| +0.154 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.038 #62 |
| +0.263 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.001 #44 |
| −11.6 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −0.6 #63 |
| +10.8 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −3.2 #28 |
| Situational | ||
| −7.2% | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +0.1% #51 |
| +8.6% | Passing-down success allowed | +0.8% #51 |
| −1.60 | Points per drive | −0.05 #56 |
| +2.22 | Points per drive allowed | −0.02 #28 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.78 | Line yards per rush | −0.07 #52 |
| +0.42 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.08 #62 |
| +5.9% | Runs stuffed at the line | −0.0% #42 |
| −3.5% | Opponent runs stuffed | −1.0% #73 |
| −1.0% | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −0.5% #53 |
| −8.6% | Havoc created | −0.5% #72 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.045 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.019 #97 |
| −0.005 | Passing explosiveness | +0.029 #39 |
| −0.57 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.07 #60 |
| −0.095 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.056 #28 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 56% | Run rate | 53% #51 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| SDST | Season to date | Northwestern |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | Record | 3-1 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 1-1 |
| 0-0 | Home | 3-0 |
| 0-1 | Away | 0-1 |
| 0-1 | Against the spread | 4-0 |
| 1-0 | Over/under | 4-0 |
| 18.0 / 34.0 | Points for / against | 33.0 / 16.8 |
| -16.0 | Avg margin | +16.2 |
| -2.0 | Avg vs. the spread | +17.8 |
| 55.5 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 59.0 |
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