Final
Sat, Sep 12, 12:00 PM ET
Lincoln Financial Field · 81° · wind 8 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Penn State–Temple) | 35–18 | – | 27–9 |
| Spread | Penn State −16.3 | Penn State −24.5 | Penn State −18 |
| Total | 53.0 | 49.5 | 36 |
| Temple win chance | 15% | – | – |
Line moved from Penn State −21.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Temple +24.5 Won★ Over 49.5 Lost
Spread: 8.2 pts better than Vegas for Temple (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 3.5 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Penn State by 16.356%
Penn State by 14+
29%
Penn State by 1–13
12%
Temple by 1–13
3%
Temple by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Penn State | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Temple |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.125 #12 | Offense EPA / play | −0.034 #72 |
| −0.031 #30 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.146 #119 |
| +3.6% #26 | Offense success rate | −3.3% #99 |
| −1.7% #26 | Defense success rate allowed | +6.0% #118 |
| −0.013 #62 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.056 #88 |
| +0.243 #6 | Passing EPA / play | −0.016 #69 |
| −0.064 #22 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.162 #125 |
| −0.012 #49 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.110 #92 |
| +4.1 #30 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −2.5 #75 |
| −7.2 #12 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +5.6 #99 |
| Situational | ||
| +3.6% #20 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −4.3% #102 |
| −1.1% #34 | Passing-down success allowed | +5.9% #118 |
| +0.96 #26 | Points per drive | −0.09 #55 |
| −0.37 #17 | Points per drive allowed | +1.24 #112 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.06 #37 | Line yards per rush | −0.36 #113 |
| −0.39 #7 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.16 #83 |
| −2.5% #21 | Runs stuffed at the line | +2.5% #97 |
| +4.4% #8 | Opponent runs stuffed | +0.4% #45 |
| −0.8% #43 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +0.8% #92 |
| +2.7% #15 | Havoc created | +0.1% #56 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.128 #122 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.058 #35 |
| +0.179 #11 | Passing explosiveness | −0.025 #81 |
| −0.31 #102 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.00 #42 |
| −0.084 #49 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.077 #115 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 52% #66 | Run rate | 57% #20 |
| −15.2 #79 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −22.0 #95 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Penn State | Season to date | Temple |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 2-3 |
| 0-2 | Conference | 1-1 |
| 2-1 | Home | 1-2 |
| 1-1 | Away | 1-1 |
| 2-3 | Against the spread | 4-0-1 |
| 3-2 | Over/under | 2-3 |
| 32.0 / 16.0 | Points for / against | 25.8 / 24.8 |
| +16.0 | Avg margin | +1.0 |
| -4.0 | Avg vs. the spread | +5.8 |
| 53.4 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 55.6 |
Penn State: last 1 games
| W45-0 |
Temple: last 1 games
| W38-14 |
