BEAVER
MODEL
Home
NFL
NCAAF
NBA
NCAAB
MLB
How It Works
My Slip
NCAAF
›
Teams
› Penn State
Penn State
Big Ten · 2026
3-2
Record
6.9-5.1
Projected regular season
0%
Playoff chance
+6.3
Rating (pts vs. avg)
Next
Sat, Oct 10, 7:30 PM
vs USC
43% to win
Matchup →
Schedule
results, or Beaver’s win chance for games ahead
Date
Opponent
Result / win chance
Beaver line
Vegas
Sep 5
vs
Marshall
W
45-0
−17.5
−23.5
Sep 12
at
Temple
W
27-9
−16.3
−24.5
Sep 19
vs
Buffalo
W
55-13
−29.5
−39.5
Sep 26
vs
Wisconsin
L
20-24
−12.7
−9.5
Oct 2
at
Northwestern
L
13-34
+5.5
−3
Oct 10
vs
19
USC
43%
+2.6
−1.5
Oct 17
at
Michigan
26%
+10
+5.5
Oct 31
vs
Purdue
74%
−10.5
–
Nov 7
at
Washington
39%
+4.6
–
Nov 14
vs
Minnesota
60%
−4.1
–
Nov 21
vs
Rutgers
81%
−14.3
–
Nov 28
at
Maryland
70%
−8.1
–
Rating by week
EPA per play vs. average
−0.11
−0.03
+0.06
+0.14
+0.23
Entering week
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
15
Net · 1: +0.09
Net · 2: +0.17
Net · 3: +0.15
Net · 4: +0.21
Net · 5: +0.10
Net · 6: +0.12
Net · 7: +0.12
Net · 8: +0.12
Net · 9: +0.12
Net · 10: +0.12
Net · 11: +0.12
Net · 12: +0.12
Net · 13: +0.12
Net · 15: +0.12
Offense · 1: +0.05
Offense · 2: +0.13
Offense · 3: +0.11
Offense · 4: +0.12
Offense · 5: +0.02
Offense · 6: +0.04
Offense · 7: +0.04
Offense · 8: +0.04
Offense · 9: +0.04
Offense · 10: +0.04
Offense · 11: +0.04
Offense · 12: +0.04
Offense · 13: +0.04
Offense · 15: +0.04
Defense (lower is better) · 1: −0.04
Defense (lower is better) · 2: −0.04
Defense (lower is better) · 3: −0.04
Defense (lower is better) · 4: −0.09
Defense (lower is better) · 5: −0.09
Defense (lower is better) · 6: −0.08
Defense (lower is better) · 7: −0.08
Defense (lower is better) · 8: −0.08
Defense (lower is better) · 9: −0.08
Defense (lower is better) · 10: −0.08
Defense (lower is better) · 11: −0.08
Defense (lower is better) · 12: −0.08
Defense (lower is better) · 13: −0.08
Defense (lower is better) · 15: −0.08
●
Net
●
Offense
●
Defense (lower is better)
Elo rating
after each game
1599
1617
1636
1654
1673
Sep 5
Sep 12
Sep 19
Sep 26
Oct 2
Elo · Sep 5: 1640
Elo · Sep 12: 1656
Elo · Sep 19: 1668
Elo · Sep 26: 1640
Elo · Oct 2: 1604
Season to date
Record
3-2
Conference
0-2
Home
2-1
Away
1-1
Against the spread
2-3
Over/under
3-2
Points for / against
32.0 / 16.0
Avg margin
+16.0