Final
Sat, Sep 19, 4:00 PM ET
Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN) · 87° · wind 3 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (WKU–Indiana) | 15–50 | – | 0–38 |
| Spread | Indiana −35.6 | Indiana −44.5 | Indiana −38 |
| Total | 65.0 | 59.5 | 38 |
| Indiana win chance | 98% | – | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ WKU +44.5 Won★ Over 59.5 Lost
Spread: 8.9 pts better than Vegas for Western Kentucky (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 5.5 pts above Vegas (50% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Indiana by 35.60%
Western Kentucky by 14+
1%
Western Kentucky by 1–13
8%
Indiana by 1–13
90%
Indiana by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| WKU | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Indiana |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.134 #122 | Offense EPA / play | +0.233 #4 |
| +0.316 #138 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.069 #19 |
| −4.5% #107 | Offense success rate | +6.3% #13 |
| +8.5% #135 | Defense success rate allowed | −3.6% #13 |
| −0.173 #129 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.101 #20 |
| −0.146 #115 | Passing EPA / play | +0.429 #2 |
| +0.256 #137 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.085 #18 |
| +0.256 #132 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.029 #41 |
| −4.5 #97 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +12.9 #6 |
| +16.5 #138 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −8.0 #11 |
| Situational | ||
| −2.6% #85 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +9.1% #10 |
| +17.9% #138 | Passing-down success allowed | −1.7% #36 |
| −0.39 #79 | Points per drive | +2.40 #4 |
| +2.74 #137 | Points per drive allowed | −0.12 #21 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.33 #107 | Line yards per rush | +0.18 #21 |
| +0.61 #134 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.26 #16 |
| +5.5% #121 | Runs stuffed at the line | −1.7% #31 |
| −4.6% #120 | Opponent runs stuffed | +2.4% #31 |
| −0.3% #62 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −3.0% #12 |
| −3.7% #126 | Havoc created | +3.3% #11 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.125 #119 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.050 #41 |
| +0.073 #48 | Passing explosiveness | +0.349 #2 |
| −0.11 #64 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.04 #54 |
| +0.264 #136 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.064 #50 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 47% #120 | Run rate | 60% #8 |
| +3.0 #13 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −18.5 #100 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| WKU | Season to date | Indiana |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 5-0 |
| 0-1 | Conference | 2-0 |
| 1-0 | Home | 4-0 |
| 0-4 | Away | 1-0 |
| 2-3 | Against the spread | 1-4 |
| 3-2 | Over/under | 3-2 |
| 19.8 / 39.6 | Points for / against | 44.2 / 10.8 |
| -19.8 | Avg margin | +33.4 |
| -10.7 | Avg vs. the spread | -3.9 |
| 52.2 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 50.2 |
Indiana: last 2 games
| W55-0 | |
| W52-16 |
