Final
Sat, Sep 19, 12:00 PM ET
Beaver Stadium · 65° · wind 6 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Buffalo–Penn State) | 10–39 | – | 13–55 |
| Spread | Penn State −29.5 | Penn State −39.5 | Penn State −42 |
| Total | 49.2 | 48.5 | 68 |
| Penn State win chance | 97% | – | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Buffalo +39.5 Lost★ Over 48.5 Won
Spread: 10.0 pts better than Vegas for Buffalo (sides with a gap this size have won 48% in the backtest). Total: 0.7 pts above Vegas (52% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Penn State by 29.50%
Buffalo by 14+
3%
Buffalo by 1–13
13%
Penn State by 1–13
84%
Penn State by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Buffalo | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Penn State |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.100 #108 | Offense EPA / play | +0.108 #21 |
| +0.118 #112 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.042 #35 |
| −8.8% #136 | Offense success rate | +3.2% #35 |
| +2.1% #81 | Defense success rate allowed | −2.0% #36 |
| −0.093 #123 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.016 #92 |
| −0.144 #110 | Passing EPA / play | +0.240 #8 |
| +0.013 #63 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.005 #59 |
| +0.225 #128 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.161 #10 |
| −8.8 #124 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +3.3 #36 |
| +7.3 #120 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −10.3 #5 |
| Situational | ||
| −6.1% #110 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +2.4% #34 |
| +2.4% #91 | Passing-down success allowed | −0.5% #58 |
| −1.39 #130 | Points per drive | +0.75 #28 |
| +0.48 #92 | Points per drive allowed | −1.03 #11 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.35 #132 | Line yards per rush | −0.07 #105 |
| +0.23 #106 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.30 #20 |
| +2.4% #122 | Runs stuffed at the line | −6.5% #9 |
| −1.4% #92 | Opponent runs stuffed | +4.6% #16 |
| +0.3% #112 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −5.2% #8 |
| −0.6% #67 | Havoc created | +0.1% #54 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.014 #72 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.118 #120 |
| +0.241 #25 | Passing explosiveness | +0.200 #37 |
| −0.27 #84 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.43 #115 |
| +0.288 #136 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.182 #11 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 50% #121 | Run rate | 58% #47 |
| −17.9 #104 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −11.6 #76 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Buffalo | Season to date | Penn State |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 3-2 |
| 0-1 | Conference | 0-2 |
| 2-1 | Home | 2-1 |
| 0-2 | Away | 1-1 |
| 1-4 | Against the spread | 2-3 |
| 3-2 | Over/under | 3-2 |
| 20.4 / 30.6 | Points for / against | 32.0 / 16.0 |
| -10.2 | Avg margin | +16.0 |
| -7.1 | Avg vs. the spread | -4.0 |
| 70.2 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 53.4 |
Buffalo: last 2 games
| L20-33 | |
| W21-17 |
