Final
Fri, Sep 25, 8:00 PM ET
Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN) · 64° · wind 7 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Northwestern–Indiana) | 18–32 | – | 23–29 |
| Spread | Indiana −13.0 | Indiana −20.5 | Indiana −6 |
| Total | 50.0 | 49.5 | 52 |
| Indiana win chance | 79% | – | – |
Line moved from Indiana −23.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Northwestern +20.5 Won★ Over 49.5 Won
Spread: 7.5 pts better than Vegas for Northwestern (sides with a gap this size have won 49% in the backtest). Total: 0.5 pts above Vegas (52% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Indiana by 13.04%
Northwestern by 14+
16%
Northwestern by 1–13
32%
Indiana by 1–13
48%
Indiana by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Northwestern | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Indiana |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.096 #27 | Offense EPA / play | +0.163 #13 |
| +0.019 #63 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.122 #8 |
| +4.5% #25 | Offense success rate | +4.4% #26 |
| +3.2% #100 | Defense success rate allowed | −6.0% #10 |
| +0.150 #16 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.065 #51 |
| +0.145 #26 | Passing EPA / play | +0.349 #2 |
| +0.069 #97 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.125 #11 |
| −0.067 #32 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.077 #28 |
| +1.2 #51 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +7.7 #18 |
| −5.3 #19 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −10.2 #6 |
| Situational | ||
| +3.5% #26 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +1.8% #40 |
| −2.5% #38 | Passing-down success allowed | −2.7% #37 |
| −0.25 #78 | Points per drive | +1.61 #11 |
| −0.78 #15 | Points per drive allowed | −0.74 #18 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.34 #26 | Line yards per rush | +0.21 #51 |
| +0.48 #135 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.46 #12 |
| −6.0% #9 | Runs stuffed at the line | −4.7% #28 |
| −4.2% #123 | Opponent runs stuffed | +4.3% #16 |
| −2.3% #51 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −3.8% #21 |
| +1.2% #32 | Havoc created | +2.8% #11 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.021 #83 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.017 #81 |
| +0.157 #48 | Passing explosiveness | +0.316 #18 |
| +0.22 #26 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.24 #87 |
| −0.112 #25 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.030 #52 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 59% #30 | Run rate | 63% #16 |
| −7.8 #48 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −20.9 #129 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Northwestern | Season to date | Indiana |
|---|---|---|
| 3-1 | Record | 5-0 |
| 1-1 | Conference | 2-0 |
| 3-0 | Home | 4-0 |
| 0-1 | Away | 1-0 |
| 4-0 | Against the spread | 1-4 |
| 4-0 | Over/under | 3-2 |
| 33.0 / 16.8 | Points for / against | 44.2 / 10.8 |
| +16.2 | Avg margin | +33.4 |
| +17.8 | Avg vs. the spread | -3.9 |
| 59.0 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 50.2 |
Northwestern: last 2 games
| W41-7 | |
| W34-18 |
Indiana: last 3 games
| W38-0 | |
| W55-0 | |
| W52-16 |
