Final
Sat, Sep 26, 5:00 PM ET
Beaver Stadium · 62° · wind 13 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Wisconsin–Penn State) | 16–28 | – | 24–20 |
| Spread | Penn State −12.7 | Penn State −9.5 | Wisconsin −4 |
| Total | 44.2 | 43.5 | 44 |
| Penn State win chance | 79% | – | – |
Line moved from Penn State −11.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Penn State −9.5 Lost★ Over 43.5 Won
Spread: 3.2 pts better than Vegas for Penn State (sides with a gap this size have won 52% in the backtest). Total: 0.7 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Penn State by 12.74%
Wisconsin by 14+
16%
Wisconsin by 1–13
33%
Penn State by 1–13
47%
Penn State by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Wisconsin | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Penn State |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.008 #66 | Offense EPA / play | +0.109 #21 |
| +0.035 #64 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.072 #15 |
| −1.8% #77 | Offense success rate | +1.0% #47 |
| +0.7% #57 | Defense success rate allowed | −4.2% #11 |
| +0.017 #52 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.025 #75 |
| −0.006 #65 | Passing EPA / play | +0.235 #9 |
| +0.068 #87 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.013 #57 |
| +0.024 #62 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.205 #8 |
| −0.2 #64 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +4.8 #27 |
| −2.8 #33 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −8.9 #8 |
| Situational | ||
| −2.2% #80 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +2.9% #32 |
| −4.4% #14 | Passing-down success allowed | −2.4% #33 |
| +0.08 #53 | Points per drive | +0.94 #21 |
| −0.17 #25 | Points per drive allowed | −0.37 #16 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.11 #70 | Line yards per rush | −0.31 #105 |
| +0.10 #64 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.24 #20 |
| −0.6% #53 | Runs stuffed at the line | −3.1% #12 |
| −5.4% #125 | Opponent runs stuffed | +2.8% #28 |
| −1.3% #42 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −2.6% #19 |
| −2.0% #98 | Havoc created | +1.4% #32 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.083 #26 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.013 #59 |
| +0.073 #42 | Passing explosiveness | +0.142 #25 |
| −0.04 #57 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.06 #44 |
| −0.161 #21 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.410 #1 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 53% #47 | Run rate | 54% #42 |
| −8.7 #48 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −14.1 #91 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Wisconsin | Season to date | Penn State |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 3-2 |
| 2-0 | Conference | 0-2 |
| 3-0 | Home | 2-1 |
| 1-0 | Away | 1-1 |
| 3-2 | Against the spread | 2-3 |
| 3-2 | Over/under | 3-2 |
| 31.6 / 16.6 | Points for / against | 32.0 / 16.0 |
| +15.0 | Avg margin | +16.0 |
| +6.0 | Avg vs. the spread | -4.0 |
| 55.8 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 53.4 |
Wisconsin: last 3 games
| W54-10 | |
| W36-9 | |
| L13-41 |
