Final
Sat, Sep 26, 11:00 PM ET
Husky Stadium · 53° · wind 8 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Minnesota–Washington) | 21–25 | – | 27–24 |
| Spread | Washington −3.5 | Washington −12.5 | Minnesota −3 |
| Total | 46.3 | 44.5 | 51 |
| Washington win chance | 59% | – | – |
Line moved from Washington −9.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Minnesota +12.5 Won★ Over 44.5 Won
Spread: 9.0 pts better than Vegas for Minnesota (sides with a gap this size have won 49% in the backtest). Total: 1.8 pts above Vegas (52% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Washington by 3.513%
Minnesota by 14+
28%
Minnesota by 1–13
34%
Washington by 1–13
25%
Washington by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Minnesota | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Washington |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.067 #94 | Offense EPA / play | −0.006 #68 |
| +0.025 #71 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.067 #26 |
| +0.7% #60 | Offense success rate | +2.0% #46 |
| +0.3% #63 | Defense success rate allowed | −1.0% #49 |
| −0.058 #109 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.047 #107 |
| −0.094 #91 | Passing EPA / play | +0.007 #50 |
| +0.028 #70 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.038 #38 |
| +0.112 #92 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.075 #29 |
| −0.9 #67 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −1.4 #73 |
| −2.3 #42 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −2.3 #43 |
| Situational | ||
| −6.3% #111 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −4.3% #93 |
| −0.1% #67 | Passing-down success allowed | +0.1% #69 |
| +0.91 #23 | Points per drive | −0.10 #69 |
| +0.14 #74 | Points per drive allowed | +0.00 #64 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.49 #133 | Line yards per rush | −0.06 #103 |
| +0.07 #76 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.04 #61 |
| +3.5% #127 | Runs stuffed at the line | +2.2% #121 |
| −0.7% #79 | Opponent runs stuffed | +6.2% #6 |
| −0.4% #94 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −3.9% #20 |
| +2.0% #20 | Havoc created | +2.5% #15 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.125 #119 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.149 #126 |
| −0.029 #117 | Passing explosiveness | −0.087 #128 |
| −0.66 #132 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.41 #112 |
| −0.008 #59 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.003 #63 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 45% #136 | Run rate | 50% #116 |
| −13.4 #95 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −14.9 #104 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Minnesota | Season to date | Washington |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 3-2 |
| 2-0 | Conference | 0-2 |
| 3-1 | Home | 3-1 |
| 1-0 | Away | 0-1 |
| 4-1 | Against the spread | 1-4 |
| 2-3 | Over/under | 2-3 |
| 32.0 / 18.0 | Points for / against | 26.6 / 18.4 |
| +14.0 | Avg margin | +8.2 |
| +5.1 | Avg vs. the spread | -11.7 |
| 55.4 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 62.6 |
Minnesota: last 3 games
| W41-7 | |
| L13-38 | |
| W59-7 |
Washington: last 3 games
| W48-16 | |
| W16-14 | |
| W24-10 |
