Final
Sat, Oct 3, 12:00 PM ET
Huntington Bank Stadium · 67° · wind 15 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Michigan–Minnesota) | 26–22 | – | 14–20 |
| Spread | Michigan −4.1 | Michigan −6.5 | Minnesota −6 |
| Total | 47.9 | 41.5 | 34 |
| Minnesota win chance | 40% | – | – |
Line moved from Michigan −8.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Minnesota +6.5 Won★ Over 41.5 Lost
Spread: 2.4 pts better than Vegas for Minnesota (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 6.4 pts above Vegas (54% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Michigan by 4.126%
Michigan by 14+
34%
Michigan by 1–13
27%
Minnesota by 1–13
13%
Minnesota by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Michigan | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Minnesota |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.061 #37 | Offense EPA / play | −0.056 #90 |
| −0.072 #26 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.011 #65 |
| +2.8% #40 | Offense success rate | +0.2% #68 |
| −5.6% #12 | Defense success rate allowed | −0.7% #54 |
| +0.068 #53 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.085 #116 |
| +0.085 #34 | Passing EPA / play | −0.009 #59 |
| −0.077 #23 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.033 #73 |
| −0.142 #16 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.083 #83 |
| +0.5 #61 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +0.0 #64 |
| −5.3 #24 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −1.7 #47 |
| Situational | ||
| +4.8% #21 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −7.8% #118 |
| −4.6% #21 | Passing-down success allowed | +3.6% #101 |
| −0.02 #65 | Points per drive | +0.76 #25 |
| −0.75 #17 | Points per drive allowed | +0.07 #66 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.42 #21 | Line yards per rush | −0.51 #133 |
| −0.16 #41 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.01 #69 |
| −8.1% #3 | Runs stuffed at the line | +3.6% #129 |
| +1.4% #50 | Opponent runs stuffed | +0.3% #67 |
| −2.4% #44 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −2.1% #53 |
| +1.2% #31 | Havoc created | +4.6% #6 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.018 #85 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.163 #129 |
| +0.177 #44 | Passing explosiveness | +0.003 #107 |
| −0.27 #86 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.57 #126 |
| +0.124 #110 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.051 #91 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 59% #33 | Run rate | 47% #131 |
| −0.6 #21 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −12.1 #94 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Michigan | Season to date | Minnesota |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 4-1 |
| 0-2 | Conference | 2-0 |
| 3-1 | Home | 3-1 |
| 0-1 | Away | 1-0 |
| 2-3 | Against the spread | 4-1 |
| 1-4 | Over/under | 2-3 |
| 23.0 / 15.8 | Points for / against | 32.0 / 18.0 |
| +7.2 | Avg margin | +14.0 |
| -6.3 | Avg vs. the spread | +5.1 |
| 57.2 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 55.4 |
Michigan: last 4 games
| L19-20 | |
| W52-17 | |
| W17-10 | |
| W13-12 |
Minnesota: last 4 games
| W27-24 | |
| W41-7 | |
| L13-38 | |
| W59-7 |
