Final
Sat, Oct 3, 8:00 PM ET
SHI Stadium · 59° · wind 4 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Indiana–Rutgers) | 38–18 | – | 47–15 |
| Spread | Indiana −20.1 | Indiana −24.5 | Indiana −32 |
| Total | 56.1 | 56.5 | 62 |
| Rutgers win chance | 11% | – | – |
Line moved from Indiana −23.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Rutgers +24.5 Lost★ Under 56.5 Lost
Spread: 4.4 pts better than Vegas for Rutgers (sides with a gap this size have won 54% in the backtest). Total: 0.4 pts below Vegas (52% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Indiana by 20.165%
Indiana by 14+
25%
Indiana by 1–13
9%
Rutgers by 1–13
2%
Rutgers by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Indiana | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Rutgers |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.158 #16 | Offense EPA / play | −0.021 #75 |
| −0.118 #12 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.132 #116 |
| +4.0% #30 | Offense success rate | +3.2% #36 |
| −6.8% #7 | Defense success rate allowed | +6.2% #124 |
| +0.087 #47 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.036 #99 |
| +0.302 #3 | Passing EPA / play | +0.036 #49 |
| −0.140 #16 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.135 #118 |
| −0.074 #31 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.153 #104 |
| +7.7 #16 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +0.0 #63 |
| −10.0 #7 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +7.5 #120 |
| Situational | ||
| +0.7% #48 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +1.8% #40 |
| −2.3% #44 | Passing-down success allowed | +3.5% #99 |
| +1.45 #12 | Points per drive | +0.07 #60 |
| −0.78 #16 | Points per drive allowed | +0.74 #110 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.20 #51 | Line yards per rush | +0.10 #68 |
| −0.48 #13 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.23 #105 |
| −4.1% #41 | Runs stuffed at the line | −2.4% #61 |
| +2.9% #32 | Opponent runs stuffed | −1.0% #85 |
| −4.2% #19 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −0.2% #97 |
| +2.7% #16 | Havoc created | −3.2% #125 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.036 #54 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.058 #104 |
| +0.284 #18 | Passing explosiveness | +0.322 #13 |
| +0.29 #19 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.18 #75 |
| −0.021 #59 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.019 #60 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 62% #15 | Run rate | 55% #75 |
| −12.6 #102 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −14.5 #118 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Indiana | Season to date | Rutgers |
|---|---|---|
| 5-0 | Record | 1-4 |
| 2-0 | Conference | 0-2 |
| 4-0 | Home | 1-3 |
| 1-0 | Away | 0-1 |
| 1-4 | Against the spread | 2-3 |
| 3-2 | Over/under | 4-1 |
| 44.2 / 10.8 | Points for / against | 30.0 / 32.2 |
| +33.4 | Avg margin | -2.2 |
| -3.9 | Avg vs. the spread | -6.9 |
| 50.2 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 52.2 |
Indiana: last 4 games
| W29-23 | |
| W38-0 | |
| W55-0 | |
| W52-16 |
Rutgers: last 4 games
| W58-7 | |
| L35-42 | |
| L21-28 | |
| L21-37 |
