Final
Sat, Oct 3, 12:30 PM ET
Camp Randall Stadium · 64° · wind 10 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Michigan State–Wisconsin) | 18–30 | – | 3–31 |
| Spread | Wisconsin −12.6 | Wisconsin −8.5 | Wisconsin −28 |
| Total | 47.9 | 43.5 | 34 |
| Wisconsin win chance | 79% | – | – |
Line moved from Wisconsin −10 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Wisconsin −8.5 Won★ Over 43.5 Lost
Spread: 4.1 pts better than Vegas for Wisconsin (sides with a gap this size have won 52% in the backtest). Total: 4.4 pts above Vegas (50% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Wisconsin by 12.65%
Michigan State by 14+
17%
Michigan State by 1–13
32%
Wisconsin by 1–13
46%
Wisconsin by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Michigan State | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Wisconsin |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.074 #94 | Offense EPA / play | −0.000 #61 |
| +0.030 #67 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.040 #33 |
| +2.0% #41 | Offense success rate | −1.0% #70 |
| +1.2% #59 | Defense success rate allowed | −2.5% #25 |
| −0.090 #103 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.081 #30 |
| −0.064 #88 | Passing EPA / play | −0.012 #67 |
| +0.023 #60 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.060 #78 |
| +0.022 #60 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.132 #18 |
| −3.7 #86 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +2.1 #48 |
| −3.6 #29 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −3.9 #26 |
| Situational | ||
| −2.9% #83 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −1.5% #69 |
| +0.2% #57 | Passing-down success allowed | −6.7% #4 |
| −0.38 #84 | Points per drive | +0.20 #50 |
| −0.39 #14 | Points per drive allowed | −0.49 #11 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.16 #77 | Line yards per rush | −0.01 #52 |
| −0.06 #41 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.13 #71 |
| +2.7% #98 | Runs stuffed at the line | −1.7% #40 |
| +5.7% #4 | Opponent runs stuffed | −4.3% #112 |
| +3.6% #125 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −0.5% #51 |
| −0.3% #62 | Havoc created | −0.7% #70 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.199 #132 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.182 #6 |
| −0.129 #117 | Passing explosiveness | +0.117 #29 |
| −0.40 #111 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.07 #64 |
| +0.059 #104 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.188 #16 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 54% #42 | Run rate | 53% #55 |
| +3.7 #5 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −3.5 #25 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Michigan State | Season to date | Wisconsin |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 4-1 |
| 0-2 | Conference | 2-0 |
| 2-1 | Home | 3-0 |
| 0-2 | Away | 1-0 |
| 2-2-1 | Against the spread | 3-2 |
| 1-4 | Over/under | 3-2 |
| 18.2 / 23.2 | Points for / against | 31.6 / 16.6 |
| -5.0 | Avg margin | +15.0 |
| -1.9 | Avg vs. the spread | +6.0 |
| 64.8 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 55.8 |
Michigan State: last 4 games
| L13-31 | |
| L10-27 | |
| W35-7 | |
| W30-20 |
Wisconsin: last 4 games
| W24-20 | |
| W54-10 | |
| W36-9 | |
| L13-41 |
