Final
Sat, Sep 26, 12:00 PM ET
Glass Bowl · 68° · wind 6 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (SDSU–Toledo) | 21–32 | – | 16–41 |
| Spread | Toledo −11.6 | Toledo −2.5 | Toledo −25 |
| Total | 53.1 | 50.5 | 57 |
| Toledo win chance | 77% | – | – |
Line moved from SDSU −1.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Toledo −2.5 Won★ Over 50.5 Won
Spread: 9.1 pts better than Vegas for Toledo (sides with a gap this size have won 49% in the backtest). Total: 2.6 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Toledo by 11.66%
San Diego State by 14+
18%
San Diego State by 1–13
33%
Toledo by 1–13
44%
Toledo by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| SDSU | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Toledo |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.160 #125 | Offense EPA / play | +0.009 #58 |
| +0.042 #79 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.012 #61 |
| −6.8% #130 | Offense success rate | −1.5% #85 |
| +2.3% #86 | Defense success rate allowed | −1.9% #43 |
| −0.009 #88 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.035 #65 |
| −0.333 #134 | Passing EPA / play | −0.024 #71 |
| +0.008 #62 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.010 #63 |
| +0.075 #82 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.178 #112 |
| −8.3 #116 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +4.1 #31 |
| +0.2 #67 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +5.6 #105 |
| Situational | ||
| −6.5% #114 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −0.9% #62 |
| −1.9% #44 | Passing-down success allowed | −1.6% #49 |
| −0.95 #113 | Points per drive | +0.91 #22 |
| −0.15 #51 | Points per drive allowed | +0.50 #99 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.21 #48 | Line yards per rush | +0.03 #82 |
| +0.47 #133 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.10 #83 |
| −1.5% #80 | Runs stuffed at the line | −3.1% #53 |
| −8.9% #138 | Opponent runs stuffed | −1.3% #89 |
| +0.7% #109 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +0.6% #108 |
| −4.4% #136 | Havoc created | −3.4% #130 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.006 #68 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.118 #25 |
| +0.181 #43 | Passing explosiveness | +0.400 #4 |
| −0.42 #115 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.22 #82 |
| +0.048 #86 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.129 #114 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 65% #10 | Run rate | 51% #115 |
| −11.5 #76 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −12.5 #86 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| SDSU | Season to date | Toledo |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 4-1 |
| 1-0 | Conference | 1-0 |
| 2-1 | Home | 3-0 |
| 0-2 | Away | 1-1 |
| 1-4 | Against the spread | 2-2-1 |
| 3-2 | Over/under | 5-0 |
| 24.6 / 28.8 | Points for / against | 42.4 / 25.6 |
| -4.2 | Avg margin | +16.8 |
| -7.3 | Avg vs. the spread | +6.0 |
| 54.4 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 58.4 |
San Diego State: last 3 games
| L13-26 | |
| L10-28 | |
| W53-20 |
Toledo: last 3 games
| W49-48 | |
| W63-10 | |
| L20-30 |
