Final
Sat, Oct 3, 6:00 PM ET
Canvas Stadium · 76° · wind 13 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Oregon State–Colorado State) | 33–29 | – | 56–26 |
| Spread | Oregon State −4.1 | Oregon State −7 | Oregon State −30 |
| Total | 62.0 | 60.5 | 82 |
| Colorado State win chance | 40% | – | – |
Line moved from Oregon State −3.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Colorado State +7 Lost★ Over 60.5 Won
Spread: 2.9 pts better than Vegas for Colorado State (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 1.5 pts above Vegas (52% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Oregon State by 4.127%
Oregon State by 14+
33%
Oregon State by 1–13
27%
Colorado State by 1–13
14%
Colorado State by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Oregon State | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Colorado State |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.044 #45 | Offense EPA / play | +0.077 #29 |
| +0.007 #63 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.128 #111 |
| −0.8% #78 | Offense success rate | −1.2% #84 |
| −3.4% #29 | Defense success rate allowed | +5.2% #118 |
| −0.052 #108 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.110 #38 |
| +0.015 #53 | Passing EPA / play | +0.074 #37 |
| +0.005 #62 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.139 #119 |
| −0.043 #39 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.242 #128 |
| −1.4 #67 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +3.5 #36 |
| −0.9 #56 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +10.4 #131 |
| Situational | ||
| −2.4% #76 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +0.5% #50 |
| −3.7% #29 | Passing-down success allowed | +4.0% #106 |
| −0.01 #64 | Points per drive | −0.05 #66 |
| −0.24 #45 | Points per drive allowed | +1.04 #121 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.12 #63 | Line yards per rush | −0.27 #123 |
| +0.03 #73 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.43 #127 |
| −7.0% #7 | Runs stuffed at the line | −1.0% #82 |
| −4.2% #123 | Opponent runs stuffed | −3.3% #112 |
| −2.1% #55 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +0.2% #102 |
| +0.4% #50 | Havoc created | +1.0% #36 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.123 #121 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.244 #1 |
| +0.268 #20 | Passing explosiveness | +0.238 #28 |
| −0.12 #66 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.45 #12 |
| −0.038 #53 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.193 #127 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 44% #136 | Run rate | 49% #127 |
| −4.8 #34 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −8.4 #59 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Oregon State | Season to date | Colorado State |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 2-3 |
| 1-0 | Conference | 0-1 |
| 1-1 | Home | 2-2 |
| 2-1 | Away | 0-1 |
| 5-0 | Against the spread | 3-2 |
| 4-1 | Over/under | 5-0 |
| 37.0 / 23.6 | Points for / against | 37.4 / 38.6 |
| +13.4 | Avg margin | -1.2 |
| +15.5 | Avg vs. the spread | +2.2 |
| 59.2 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 58.8 |
Oregon State: last 4 games
| W33-7 | |
| W52-17 | |
| L24-35 | |
| L20-33 |
Colorado State: last 4 games
| L45-59 | |
| L23-41 | |
| W58-24 | |
| W35-13 |
