Final
Sat, Aug 29, 10:00 PM ET
Allegiant Stadium · Indoors
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Memphis–UNLV) | 26–30 | – | 27–21 |
| Spread | UNLV −3.4 | UNLV −4.5 | Memphis −6 |
| Total | 55.8 | 55.5 | 48 |
| UNLV win chance | 58% | – | – |
Line moved from UNLV −3 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Memphis +4.5 Won★ Over 55.5 Lost
Spread: 1.1 pts better than Vegas for Memphis (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 0.3 pts above Vegas (52% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around UNLV by 3.414%
Memphis by 14+
28%
Memphis by 1–13
33%
UNLV by 1–13
26%
UNLV by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Memphis | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | UNLV |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.001 #60 | Offense EPA / play | +0.014 #47 |
| +0.046 #79 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.079 #99 |
| +0.0% #64 | Offense success rate | +0.5% #56 |
| +0.5% #67 | Defense success rate allowed | +2.8% #102 |
| +0.072 #34 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.027 #70 |
| −0.040 #73 | Passing EPA / play | −0.007 #56 |
| +0.015 #56 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.070 #110 |
| +0.080 #82 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.083 #85 |
| −1.1 #65 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +0.7 #53 |
| +0.5 #63 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +4.4 #99 |
| Situational | ||
| −1.8% #71 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −0.0% #42 |
| +0.5% #67 | Passing-down success allowed | +1.1% #76 |
| −0.14 #73 | Points per drive | −0.06 #66 |
| +0.06 #56 | Points per drive allowed | +0.38 #85 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.18 #40 | Line yards per rush | +0.05 #82 |
| −0.13 #31 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.12 #101 |
| −1.4% #79 | Runs stuffed at the line | −0.3% #118 |
| +1.7% #30 | Opponent runs stuffed | −0.7% #92 |
| −1.1% #76 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +0.1% #122 |
| +0.5% #35 | Havoc created | −0.5% #65 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.017 #56 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.021 #44 |
| +0.095 #82 | Passing explosiveness | +0.076 #103 |
| −0.04 #43 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.02 #34 |
| +0.020 #93 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.030 #105 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 53% #98 | Run rate | 54% #83 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Memphis | Season to date | UNLV |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 3-2 |
| 1-0 | Conference | 1-0 |
| 2-0 | Home | 1-1 |
| 2-1 | Away | 2-1 |
| 3-2 | Against the spread | 3-2 |
| 4-1 | Over/under | 1-4 |
| 38.6 / 22.4 | Points for / against | 25.0 / 23.6 |
| +16.2 | Avg margin | +1.4 |
| +6.5 | Avg vs. the spread | -3.6 |
| 62.0 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 64.4 |
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