Final
Sat, Sep 12, 3:45 PM ET
DATCU Stadium · 99° · wind 10 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (UNLV–North Texas) | 27–32 | – | 6–44 |
| Spread | North Texas −5.3 | UNLV −3 | North Texas −38 |
| Total | 58.7 | 58.5 | 50 |
| North Texas win chance | 63% | – | – |
Line moved from UNLV −6.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ North Texas +3 Won★ Over 58.5 Lost
Spread: 8.3 pts better than Vegas for North Texas (sides with a gap this size have won 49% in the backtest). Total: 0.2 pts above Vegas (52% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around North Texas by 5.312%
UNLV by 14+
25%
UNLV by 1–13
33%
North Texas by 1–13
30%
North Texas by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| UNLV | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | North Texas |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.060 #98 | Offense EPA / play | +0.060 #35 |
| +0.031 #73 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.117 #115 |
| −4.0% #119 | Offense success rate | +1.2% #53 |
| +1.8% #82 | Defense success rate allowed | +2.5% #95 |
| +0.086 #41 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.089 #37 |
| −0.257 #133 | Passing EPA / play | +0.029 #43 |
| +0.066 #97 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.010 #66 |
| +0.018 #66 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.332 #138 |
| −3.7 #89 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +1.9 #42 |
| −1.3 #45 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +6.1 #113 |
| Situational | ||
| −6.6% #118 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −0.5% #57 |
| −2.4% #33 | Passing-down success allowed | +4.9% #123 |
| −0.70 #103 | Points per drive | +0.15 #45 |
| −0.27 #41 | Points per drive allowed | +0.69 #112 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.16 #60 | Line yards per rush | +0.32 #29 |
| +0.47 #135 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.11 #44 |
| −1.5% #77 | Runs stuffed at the line | −6.9% #1 |
| −2.4% #113 | Opponent runs stuffed | −0.9% #93 |
| −0.2% #109 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −3.3% #26 |
| +0.1% #60 | Havoc created | −2.3% #115 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.252 #2 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.193 #7 |
| +0.020 #108 | Passing explosiveness | +0.159 #45 |
| +0.43 #15 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.15 #64 |
| +0.069 #94 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.185 #129 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 57% #52 | Run rate | 55% #71 |
| −5.6 #58 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | +21.7 #5 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| UNLV | Season to date | North Texas |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 3-2 |
| 1-0 | Conference | 1-0 |
| 1-1 | Home | 2-0 |
| 2-1 | Away | 1-2 |
| 3-2 | Against the spread | 3-2 |
| 1-4 | Over/under | 4-1 |
| 25.0 / 23.6 | Points for / against | 40.6 / 33.0 |
| +1.4 | Avg margin | +7.6 |
| -3.6 | Avg vs. the spread | +8.4 |
| 64.4 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 65.4 |
