Final
Fri, Sep 25, 4:00 PM ET
Lincoln Financial Field · 69° · wind 13 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Army–Temple) | 29–27 | – | 21–17 |
| Spread | Army −2.4 | Army −4 | Army −4 |
| Total | 55.7 | 48.5 | 38 |
| Temple win chance | 44% | – | – |
Line moved from Army −3 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Temple +4 Push★ Over 48.5 Lost
Spread: 1.6 pts better than Vegas for Temple (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 7.2 pts above Vegas (52% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Army by 2.424%
Army by 14+
32%
Army by 1–13
29%
Temple by 1–13
15%
Temple by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Army | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Temple |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.027 #77 | Offense EPA / play | +0.035 #45 |
| +0.163 #120 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.156 #117 |
| −1.4% #69 | Offense success rate | −1.3% #68 |
| +7.1% #123 | Defense success rate allowed | +7.2% #126 |
| +0.054 #30 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.040 #40 |
| −0.050 #86 | Passing EPA / play | −0.038 #82 |
| +0.150 #114 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.139 #108 |
| +0.159 #105 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.143 #103 |
| −2.7 #80 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −0.7 #67 |
| +2.8 #80 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +6.7 #104 |
| Situational | ||
| −4.7% #104 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −0.9% #66 |
| +6.2% #117 | Passing-down success allowed | +6.7% #121 |
| +0.05 #56 | Points per drive | −0.19 #70 |
| +1.16 #109 | Points per drive allowed | +0.93 #96 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.07 #36 | Line yards per rush | −0.15 #74 |
| +0.41 #118 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.17 #75 |
| −1.9% #30 | Runs stuffed at the line | +1.8% #87 |
| −1.1% #72 | Opponent runs stuffed | −5.8% #127 |
| −4.2% #7 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −2.3% #25 |
| −3.0% #116 | Havoc created | −3.0% #118 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.015 #71 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.042 #50 |
| +0.100 #35 | Passing explosiveness | +0.118 #29 |
| +0.12 #38 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.27 #25 |
| −0.053 #56 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.078 #47 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 80% #1 | Run rate | 59% #11 |
| −17.8 #117 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −5.7 #38 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Army | Season to date | Temple |
|---|---|---|
| 2-2 | Record | 2-3 |
| 1-1 | Conference | 1-1 |
| 1-1 | Home | 1-2 |
| 1-1 | Away | 1-1 |
| 1-2-1 | Against the spread | 4-0-1 |
| 3-1 | Over/under | 2-3 |
| 33.2 / 19.8 | Points for / against | 25.8 / 24.8 |
| +13.5 | Avg margin | +1.0 |
| +2.8 | Avg vs. the spread | +5.8 |
| 60.8 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 55.6 |
Army: last 2 games
| L24-28 | |
| W59-3 |
Temple: last 3 games
| L48-49 | |
| L9-27 | |
| W38-14 |
