Final
Sat, Sep 26, 6:30 PM ET
Jerry Richardson Stadium · 70° · wind 10 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Louisiana–Charlotte) | 33–19 | – | 34–7 |
| Spread | Louisiana −13.8 | Louisiana −9.5 | Louisiana −27 |
| Total | 51.5 | 49.5 | 41 |
| Charlotte win chance | 19% | – | – |
Line moved from Louisiana −14.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Louisiana −9.5 Won★ Over 49.5 Lost
Spread: 4.3 pts better than Vegas for Louisiana (sides with a gap this size have won 52% in the backtest). Total: 2.0 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Louisiana by 13.850%
Louisiana by 14+
31%
Louisiana by 1–13
15%
Charlotte by 1–13
4%
Charlotte by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Louisiana | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Charlotte |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.068 #92 | Offense EPA / play | −0.204 #135 |
| +0.023 #58 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.167 #122 |
| −6.2% #119 | Offense success rate | −8.9% #133 |
| +4.0% #89 | Defense success rate allowed | +10.3% #137 |
| +0.046 #34 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.176 #125 |
| −0.101 #99 | Passing EPA / play | −0.191 #119 |
| +0.012 #56 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.115 #104 |
| +0.127 #99 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.163 #107 |
| −3.5 #83 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −10.0 #131 |
| +5.3 #94 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +11.6 #129 |
| Situational | ||
| −4.5% #101 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −6.9% #119 |
| +3.0% #89 | Passing-down success allowed | +16.5% #138 |
| −0.71 #98 | Points per drive | −1.31 #127 |
| +0.82 #86 | Points per drive allowed | +1.50 #123 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.26 #100 | Line yards per rush | −0.89 #136 |
| +0.12 #68 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.23 #87 |
| +1.3% #78 | Runs stuffed at the line | +8.6% #134 |
| +0.5% #52 | Opponent runs stuffed | +2.9% #26 |
| +1.1% #96 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +1.0% #94 |
| −1.5% #91 | Havoc created | −3.7% #129 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.231 #4 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.056 #41 |
| −0.127 #115 | Passing explosiveness | −0.165 #123 |
| +0.00 #50 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.11 #63 |
| −0.103 #38 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.224 #8 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 59% #12 | Run rate | 48% #108 |
| −11.1 #65 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −10.7 #63 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Louisiana | Season to date | Charlotte |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 0-5 |
| 1-0 | Conference | 0-1 |
| 3-0 | Home | 0-3 |
| 1-1 | Away | 0-2 |
| 3-1-1 | Against the spread | 2-3 |
| 1-4 | Over/under | 2-3 |
| 29.2 / 19.4 | Points for / against | 17.2 / 40.6 |
| +9.8 | Avg margin | -23.4 |
| +7.6 | Avg vs. the spread | -9.7 |
| 62.2 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 51.0 |
Charlotte: last 3 games
| L21-26 | |
| L9-41 | |
| L41-43 |
