Final
Sat, Sep 5, 10:30 PM ET
Mackay Stadium · 64° · wind 8 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (WKU–Nevada) | 26–22 | – | 14–49 |
| Spread | WKU −4.4 | WKU −1.5 | Nevada −35 |
| Total | 47.5 | 51.5 | 63 |
| Nevada win chance | 39% | – | – |
Line moved from WKU −4.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ WKU −1.5 Lost★ Under 51.5 Lost
Spread: 2.9 pts better than Vegas for Western Kentucky (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 4.0 pts below Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around WKU by 4.427%
Western Kentucky by 14+
34%
Western Kentucky by 1–13
27%
Nevada by 1–13
12%
Nevada by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| WKU | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Nevada |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.080 #101 | Offense EPA / play | −0.146 #131 |
| +0.093 #93 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.136 #119 |
| −3.4% #100 | Offense success rate | −5.5% #122 |
| +3.1% #86 | Defense success rate allowed | +6.0% #119 |
| −0.086 #106 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.102 #119 |
| −0.100 #114 | Passing EPA / play | −0.188 #136 |
| +0.075 #94 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.152 #136 |
| +0.099 #97 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.127 #112 |
| −4.6 #94 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −8.9 #129 |
| +5.2 #89 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +6.3 #101 |
| Situational | ||
| −2.0% #79 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −5.7% #127 |
| +3.5% #99 | Passing-down success allowed | +3.7% #106 |
| −0.62 #98 | Points per drive | −0.71 #113 |
| +1.00 #95 | Points per drive allowed | +1.70 #135 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.24 #93 | Line yards per rush | −0.32 #110 |
| +0.19 #89 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.33 #124 |
| +3.5% #123 | Runs stuffed at the line | +2.4% #101 |
| −1.4% #82 | Opponent runs stuffed | −3.7% #132 |
| +0.8% #96 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +2.5% #131 |
| −2.6% #119 | Havoc created | −1.9% #104 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.023 #109 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.025 #113 |
| −0.034 #123 | Passing explosiveness | −0.049 #133 |
| −0.10 #69 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.27 #116 |
| −0.014 #91 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.089 #6 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 44% #133 | Run rate | 58% #14 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| WKU | Season to date | Nevada |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 1-3 |
| 0-1 | Conference | 0-1 |
| 1-0 | Home | 1-2 |
| 0-4 | Away | 0-1 |
| 2-3 | Against the spread | 2-2 |
| 3-2 | Over/under | 2-2 |
| 19.8 / 39.6 | Points for / against | 27.2 / 24.2 |
| -19.8 | Avg margin | +3.0 |
| -10.7 | Avg vs. the spread | +4.8 |
| 52.2 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 60.2 |
Western Kentucky: last games
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Nevada: last games
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