Final
Sat, Sep 19, 7:00 PM ET
Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium · 83° · wind 7 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Nevada–MTSU) | 27–24 | – | 20–27 |
| Spread | Nevada −2.5 | Nevada −3.5 | MTSU −7 |
| Total | 51.1 | 50.5 | 47 |
| Middle Tennessee win chance | 44% | – | – |
Line moved from Nevada −6.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ MTSU +3.5 Won★ Over 50.5 Lost
Spread: 1.0 pts better than Vegas for Middle Tennessee (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 0.6 pts above Vegas (52% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Nevada by 2.523%
Nevada by 14+
33%
Nevada by 1–13
29%
Middle Tennessee by 1–13
15%
Middle Tennessee by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Nevada | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | MTSU |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.135 #124 | Offense EPA / play | −0.099 #106 |
| +0.089 #93 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.171 #134 |
| −2.8% #97 | Offense success rate | −3.4% #104 |
| +4.4% #115 | Defense success rate allowed | +6.6% #134 |
| +0.032 #66 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.007 #77 |
| −0.295 #132 | Passing EPA / play | −0.208 #122 |
| +0.026 #68 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.112 #109 |
| +0.150 #107 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.241 #131 |
| −8.8 #125 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −8.6 #123 |
| −0.1 #59 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +9.1 #131 |
| Situational | ||
| −3.6% #90 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −4.7% #96 |
| +1.8% #83 | Passing-down success allowed | +0.8% #73 |
| −1.30 #127 | Points per drive | −1.14 #121 |
| +0.02 #65 | Points per drive allowed | +1.02 #123 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.35 #26 | Line yards per rush | +0.29 #34 |
| +0.18 #97 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.38 #128 |
| −3.1% #51 | Runs stuffed at the line | −4.1% #40 |
| −0.7% #79 | Opponent runs stuffed | −2.3% #104 |
| −1.6% #65 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −1.9% #51 |
| −2.1% #104 | Havoc created | −3.3% #128 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.027 #65 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.008 #75 |
| +0.213 #31 | Passing explosiveness | −0.101 #132 |
| +0.06 #42 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.04 #44 |
| −0.072 #32 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.042 #82 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 63% #12 | Run rate | 44% #137 |
| −7.7 #52 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −30.1 #132 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Nevada | Season to date | MTSU |
|---|---|---|
| 1-3 | Record | 2-3 |
| 0-1 | Conference | 0-1 |
| 1-2 | Home | 2-0 |
| 0-1 | Away | 0-3 |
| 2-2 | Against the spread | 3-2 |
| 2-2 | Over/under | 1-4 |
| 27.2 / 24.2 | Points for / against | 20.8 / 28.0 |
| +3.0 | Avg margin | -7.2 |
| +4.8 | Avg vs. the spread | -3.0 |
| 60.2 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 55.6 |
Nevada: last 2 games
| L7-20 | |
| W49-14 |
Middle Tennessee: last 2 games
| L26-28 | |
| W38-14 |
