Final
Sat, Sep 5, 10:00 PM ET
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex · 79° · wind 13 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (UNLV–Hawai'i) | 27–29 | – | 21–6 |
| Spread | Hawai'i −2.1 | UNLV −2.5 | UNLV −15 |
| Total | 55.6 | 55.5 | 27 |
| Hawai'i win chance | 55% | – | – |
Line moved from UNLV −1.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Hawai'i +2.5 Lost★ Over 55.5 Lost
Spread: 4.6 pts better than Vegas for Hawai'i (sides with a gap this size have won 54% in the backtest). Total: 0.1 pts above Vegas (52% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Hawai'i by 2.116%
UNLV by 14+
29%
UNLV by 1–13
32%
Hawai'i by 1–13
23%
Hawai'i by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| UNLV | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Hawai'i |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.014 #47 | Offense EPA / play | −0.076 #109 |
| +0.079 #99 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.098 #111 |
| +0.5% #56 | Offense success rate | −3.0% #114 |
| +2.8% #102 | Defense success rate allowed | +2.9% #104 |
| +0.027 #70 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.080 #137 |
| −0.007 #56 | Passing EPA / play | −0.079 #93 |
| +0.070 #110 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.080 #116 |
| +0.083 #85 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.120 #110 |
| +0.7 #53 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −4.4 #96 |
| +4.4 #99 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +3.8 #92 |
| Situational | ||
| −0.0% #42 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −3.5% #93 |
| +1.1% #76 | Passing-down success allowed | +2.6% #112 |
| −0.06 #66 | Points per drive | −0.59 #108 |
| +0.38 #85 | Points per drive allowed | +0.48 #94 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.05 #82 | Line yards per rush | −0.05 #118 |
| +0.12 #101 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.24 #131 |
| −0.3% #118 | Runs stuffed at the line | −0.3% #116 |
| −0.7% #92 | Opponent runs stuffed | −2.4% #131 |
| +0.1% #122 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −1.8% #51 |
| −0.5% #65 | Havoc created | −0.9% #83 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.021 #44 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.036 #134 |
| +0.076 #103 | Passing explosiveness | +0.151 #30 |
| +0.02 #34 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.46 #134 |
| +0.030 #105 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.031 #108 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 54% #83 | Run rate | 47% #136 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| UNLV | Season to date | Hawai'i |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 1-4 |
| 1-0 | Conference | 0-3 |
| 1-1 | Home | 1-2 |
| 2-1 | Away | 0-2 |
| 3-2 | Against the spread | 1-4 |
| 1-4 | Over/under | 1-4 |
| 25.0 / 23.6 | Points for / against | 17.6 / 24.8 |
| +1.4 | Avg margin | -7.2 |
| -3.6 | Avg vs. the spread | -8.3 |
| 64.4 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 72.4 |
