Final
Sat, Sep 5, 10:00 PM ET
University Stadium (NM) · 84° · wind 3 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (CMU–New Mexico) | 23–27 | – | 7–38 |
| Spread | New Mexico −4.6 | New Mexico −11.5 | New Mexico −31 |
| Total | 49.6 | 47.5 | 45 |
| New Mexico win chance | 61% | – | – |
Line moved from New Mexico −12.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ CMU +11.5 Lost★ Over 47.5 Lost
Spread: 6.9 pts better than Vegas for Central Michigan (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 2.1 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around New Mexico by 4.612%
Central Michigan by 14+
27%
Central Michigan by 1–13
34%
New Mexico by 1–13
28%
New Mexico by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| CMU | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | New Mexico |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.050 #90 | Offense EPA / play | −0.093 #119 |
| +0.060 #84 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.075 #95 |
| −2.0% #96 | Offense success rate | −3.9% #121 |
| +2.4% #91 | Defense success rate allowed | +2.5% #94 |
| +0.010 #83 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.037 #123 |
| −0.012 #58 | Passing EPA / play | −0.139 #126 |
| +0.029 #71 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.039 #83 |
| +0.099 #98 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.121 #111 |
| −6.0 #117 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −5.2 #103 |
| +3.8 #90 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +4.1 #96 |
| Situational | ||
| −4.5% #110 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −4.1% #106 |
| +1.7% #94 | Passing-down success allowed | +2.3% #106 |
| −0.42 #91 | Points per drive | −0.67 #115 |
| +0.60 #107 | Points per drive allowed | +0.51 #97 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.00 #94 | Line yards per rush | −0.05 #115 |
| +0.11 #96 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.04 #78 |
| −1.6% #69 | Runs stuffed at the line | −1.1% #88 |
| −0.1% #76 | Opponent runs stuffed | +0.4% #63 |
| −1.5% #64 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −0.3% #114 |
| −1.1% #96 | Havoc created | −0.7% #78 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.010 #74 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.015 #113 |
| +0.184 #14 | Passing explosiveness | +0.094 #83 |
| −0.23 #100 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.26 #110 |
| −0.003 #49 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.030 #103 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 68% #6 | Run rate | 57% #47 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| CMU | Season to date | New Mexico |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 4-1 |
| 1-0 | Conference | 1-0 |
| 3-0 | Home | 3-0 |
| 0-2 | Away | 1-1 |
| 2-3 | Against the spread | 5-0 |
| 2-3 | Over/under | 3-2 |
| 17.6 / 25.4 | Points for / against | 43.4 / 10.6 |
| -7.8 | Avg margin | +32.8 |
| -1.9 | Avg vs. the spread | +19.3 |
| 46.6 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 50.0 |
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