Final
Sat, Sep 5, 3:30 PM ET
Fargodome · Indoors
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Fordham–NDSU) | 7–44 | – | 0–38 |
| Spread | NDSU −36.7 | NDSU −41.5 | NDSU −38 |
| Total | 51.1 | 54.5 | 38 |
| North Dakota State win chance | 99% | – | – |
Line moved from NDSU −39.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Fordham +41.5 Won★ Under 54.5 Won
Spread: 4.8 pts better than Vegas for Fordham (sides with a gap this size have won 54% in the backtest). Total: 3.4 pts below Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around NDSU by 36.70%
Fordham by 14+
1%
Fordham by 1–13
7%
North Dakota State by 1–13
92%
North Dakota State by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Fordham | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | NDSU |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.456 | Offense EPA / play | −0.064 #100 |
| +0.243 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.096 #109 |
| −18.3% | Offense success rate | −3.0% #113 |
| +13.7% | Defense success rate allowed | +4.2% #121 |
| −0.325 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.014 #101 |
| −0.574 | Passing EPA / play | −0.116 #116 |
| +0.197 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.101 #130 |
| +0.285 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.140 #119 |
| −28.5 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −5.3 #106 |
| +18.8 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +4.9 #104 |
| Situational | ||
| −20.5% | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −3.1% #86 |
| +13.7% | Passing-down success allowed | +4.6% #132 |
| −3.41 | Points per drive | −0.52 #99 |
| +2.40 | Points per drive allowed | +0.95 #128 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.81 | Line yards per rush | −0.10 #130 |
| +0.57 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.25 #133 |
| +7.0% | Runs stuffed at the line | +0.4% #129 |
| −3.6% | Opponent runs stuffed | −1.2% #104 |
| −2.4% | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −1.9% #49 |
| −11.5% | Havoc created | −4.4% #138 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.198 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.015 #59 |
| −0.104 | Passing explosiveness | +0.113 #59 |
| −1.19 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.33 #124 |
| −0.224 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.040 #121 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 48% | Run rate | 57% #40 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Fordham | Season to date | NDSU |
|---|---|---|
| 0-2 | Record | 5-0 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 2-0 |
| 0-0 | Home | 3-0 |
| 0-2 | Away | 2-0 |
| 1-1 | Against the spread | 3-2 |
| 0-2 | Over/under | 1-4 |
| 3.5 / 41.5 | Points for / against | 33.6 / 9.8 |
| -38.0 | Avg margin | +23.8 |
| +1.0 | Avg vs. the spread | +5.1 |
| 44.3 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 56.8 |
Fordham: last games
No games yet.
North Dakota State: last 1 games
| W33-7 |
