Final
Sat, Sep 12, 10:30 PM ET
Mackay Stadium · 69° · wind 6 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Montana State–Nevada) | 25–33 | – | 20–7 |
| Spread | Nevada −7.6 | Montana State −4.5 | Montana State −13 |
| Total | 57.8 | 51.5 | 27 |
| Nevada win chance | 68% | – | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Nevada +4.5 Lost★ Over 51.5 Lost
Spread: 12.1 pts better than Vegas for Nevada (sides with a gap this size have won 48% in the backtest). Total: 6.3 pts above Vegas (54% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Nevada by 7.69%
Montana State by 14+
23%
Montana State by 1–13
33%
Nevada by 1–13
35%
Nevada by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Montana State | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Nevada |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.011 | Offense EPA / play | −0.026 #73 |
| +0.066 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.075 #93 |
| +1.9% | Offense success rate | −1.5% #86 |
| +3.1% | Defense success rate allowed | +4.3% #118 |
| +0.057 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.108 #24 |
| +0.010 | Passing EPA / play | −0.184 #123 |
| +0.126 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.025 #73 |
| +0.033 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.117 #97 |
| +3.3 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −2.7 #79 |
| +2.4 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +2.5 #84 |
| Situational | ||
| +0.5% | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +0.2% #47 |
| −1.7% | Passing-down success allowed | +2.3% #93 |
| +1.00 | Points per drive | −0.31 #72 |
| +0.71 | Points per drive allowed | +0.66 #106 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.00 | Line yards per rush | +0.23 #43 |
| +0.21 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.13 #100 |
| −2.3% | Runs stuffed at the line | −2.4% #56 |
| −1.1% | Opponent runs stuffed | −1.1% #96 |
| −1.6% | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −1.7% #59 |
| −0.9% | Havoc created | −3.3% #126 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.129 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.142 #16 |
| −0.002 | Passing explosiveness | +0.271 #18 |
| −0.23 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.40 #16 |
| −0.325 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.062 #42 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 57% | Run rate | 64% #10 |
| n/a | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −15.1 #87 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Montana State | Season to date | Nevada |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | Record | 1-3 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 0-1 |
| 0-0 | Home | 1-2 |
| 1-0 | Away | 0-1 |
| 1-0 | Against the spread | 2-2 |
| 0-1 | Over/under | 2-2 |
| 20.0 / 7.0 | Points for / against | 27.2 / 24.2 |
| +13.0 | Avg margin | +3.0 |
| +8.5 | Avg vs. the spread | +4.8 |
| 59.8 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 60.2 |
Montana State: last games
No games yet.
Nevada: last 1 games
| W49-14 |
