Final
Sat, Sep 26, 7:30 PM ET
Carter-Finley Stadium · 64° · wind 5 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (App State–NC State) | 21–36 | – | 31–41 |
| Spread | NC State −15.2 | NC State −12.5 | NC State −10 |
| Total | 56.8 | 56.5 | 72 |
| NC State win chance | 83% | – | – |
Line moved from NC State −14 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ NC State −12.5 Lost★ Over 56.5 Won
Spread: 2.7 pts better than Vegas for NC State (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 0.3 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around NC State by 15.24%
App State by 14+
14%
App State by 1–13
30%
NC State by 1–13
53%
NC State by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| App State | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | NC State |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.042 #82 | Offense EPA / play | +0.073 #30 |
| +0.101 #95 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.083 #88 |
| −4.3% #102 | Offense success rate | +2.4% #37 |
| +4.7% #97 | Defense success rate allowed | +2.2% #72 |
| −0.191 #129 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.044 #85 |
| +0.151 #26 | Passing EPA / play | +0.212 #13 |
| +0.120 #105 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.033 #33 |
| +0.047 #73 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.188 #116 |
| −2.9 #82 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +5.7 #22 |
| +4.9 #90 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −0.0 #57 |
| Situational | ||
| +2.8% #35 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +4.9% #21 |
| −4.6% #12 | Passing-down success allowed | +1.9% #77 |
| −0.05 #64 | Points per drive | +1.31 #15 |
| +0.89 #91 | Points per drive allowed | +0.40 #62 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.75 #134 | Line yards per rush | −0.09 #65 |
| +0.24 #90 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.16 #26 |
| +4.7% #121 | Runs stuffed at the line | +0.1% #64 |
| −2.2% #87 | Opponent runs stuffed | +0.6% #51 |
| −0.1% #62 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −0.3% #60 |
| +0.5% #51 | Havoc created | +0.2% #58 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.016 #73 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.020 #75 |
| +0.064 #45 | Passing explosiveness | −0.063 #94 |
| −0.58 #129 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.43 #13 |
| −0.063 #50 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.166 #127 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 48% #109 | Run rate | 53% #51 |
| −21.6 #129 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −9.9 #56 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| App State | Season to date | NC State |
|---|---|---|
| 3-1 | Record | 3-2 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 1-1 |
| 2-0 | Home | 3-0 |
| 1-1 | Away | 0-2 |
| 3-1 | Against the spread | 2-3 |
| 2-2 | Over/under | 4-1 |
| 34.8 / 22.2 | Points for / against | 36.8 / 25.6 |
| +12.5 | Avg margin | +11.2 |
| +7.9 | Avg vs. the spread | +4.5 |
| 64.8 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 62.8 |
App State: last 3 games
| W26-21 | |
| W27-24 | |
| W55-3 |
NC State: last 3 games
| L31-35 | |
| W73-0 | |
| L8-34 |
