Final
Sat, Sep 12, 4:00 PM ET
University Stadium (NM) · 93° · wind 4 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Mercyhurst–New Mexico) | 7–50 | – | 7–70 |
| Spread | New Mexico −43.7 | New Mexico −42.5 | New Mexico −63 |
| Total | 57.0 | 54.5 | 77 |
| New Mexico win chance | 100% | – | – |
Line moved from New Mexico −40.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ New Mexico −42.5 Won★ Over 54.5 Won
Spread: 1.2 pts better than Vegas for New Mexico (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 2.5 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around New Mexico by 43.70%
Mercyhurst by 14+
0%
Mercyhurst by 1–13
3%
New Mexico by 1–13
97%
New Mexico by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Mercyhurst | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | New Mexico |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.341 | Offense EPA / play | −0.069 #100 |
| +0.339 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.043 #70 |
| −14.0% | Offense success rate | −2.5% #79 |
| +16.9% | Defense success rate allowed | +1.1% #56 |
| −0.332 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.000 #57 |
| −0.336 | Passing EPA / play | −0.165 #120 |
| +0.363 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.099 #101 |
| +0.261 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.040 #74 |
| −21.1 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −4.0 #91 |
| +21.4 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +2.4 #74 |
| Situational | ||
| −10.1% | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −2.4% #91 |
| +16.2% | Passing-down success allowed | +0.9% #64 |
| −2.54 | Points per drive | −0.46 #80 |
| +3.93 | Points per drive allowed | +0.69 #79 |
| Trenches | ||
| −1.06 | Line yards per rush | −0.07 #61 |
| +1.23 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.26 #102 |
| +14.2% | Runs stuffed at the line | −1.7% #31 |
| −7.7% | Opponent runs stuffed | −4.2% #122 |
| +5.9% | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −1.1% #36 |
| −7.3% | Havoc created | −0.9% #79 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.074 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.027 #84 |
| −0.054 | Passing explosiveness | −0.192 #135 |
| −0.56 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.51 #131 |
| −0.069 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.250 #3 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 45% | Run rate | 54% #41 |
| −15.2 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −18.3 #89 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Mercyhurst | Season to date | New Mexico |
|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | Record | 4-1 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 1-0 |
| 0-0 | Home | 3-0 |
| 0-3 | Away | 1-1 |
| 0-3 | Against the spread | 5-0 |
| 3-0 | Over/under | 3-2 |
| 9.3 / 57.7 | Points for / against | 43.4 / 10.6 |
| -48.3 | Avg margin | +32.8 |
| -11.2 | Avg vs. the spread | +19.3 |
| 39.7 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 50.0 |
Mercyhurst: last 1 games
| L14-51 |
New Mexico: last 1 games
| W38-7 |
