Final
Sat, Sep 5, 10:00 PM ET
Hornet Stadium · 76° · wind 7 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (MVSU–SAC) | 10–46 | – | 0–52 |
| Spread | SAC −35.8 | SAC −38.5 | SAC −52 |
| Total | 56.6 | 56.5 | 52 |
| Sacramento State win chance | 99% | – | – |
Line moved from SAC −35.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ MVSU +38.5 Lost★ Over 56.5 Lost
Spread: 2.7 pts better than Vegas for Mississippi Valley State (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 0.1 pts above Vegas (52% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around SAC by 35.80%
Mississippi Valley State by 14+
1%
Mississippi Valley State by 1–13
8%
Sacramento State by 1–13
91%
Sacramento State by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| MVSU | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.507 | Offense EPA / play | −0.114 #128 |
| +0.442 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.154 #136 |
| −18.9% | Offense success rate | −5.9% #134 |
| +20.3% | Defense success rate allowed | +6.3% #135 |
| −0.447 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.045 #128 |
| −0.482 | Passing EPA / play | −0.181 #134 |
| +0.323 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.132 #136 |
| +0.561 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.154 #127 |
| −29.2 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −7.4 #123 |
| +32.8 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +10.4 #137 |
| Situational | ||
| −15.3% | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −7.3% #138 |
| +19.6% | Passing-down success allowed | +5.2% #136 |
| −3.42 | Points per drive | −1.03 #136 |
| +4.45 | Points per drive allowed | +1.22 #137 |
| Trenches | ||
| −1.33 | Line yards per rush | −0.13 #133 |
| +1.01 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.28 #137 |
| +12.4% | Runs stuffed at the line | +0.6% #131 |
| −9.1% | Opponent runs stuffed | −2.3% #130 |
| −2.6% | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −0.3% #109 |
| −11.9% | Havoc created | −3.2% #134 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.161 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.010 #72 |
| +0.216 | Passing explosiveness | +0.157 #27 |
| −1.20 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.25 #109 |
| +0.118 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.040 #120 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 48% | Run rate | 58% #35 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| MVSU | Season to date | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | Record | 1-4 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 0-2 |
| 0-0 | Home | 1-2 |
| 0-1 | Away | 0-2 |
| 0-1 | Against the spread | 2-3 |
| 0-1 | Over/under | 1-4 |
| 0.0 / 52.0 | Points for / against | 17.6 / 28.6 |
| -52.0 | Avg margin | -11.0 |
| -13.5 | Avg vs. the spread | -6.8 |
| 49.2 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 49.6 |
Mississippi Valley State: last games
No games yet.
Sacramento State: last 1 games
| L17-28 |
