Final
Sat, Sep 12, 2:00 PM ET
Scheumann Stadium · 75° · wind 7 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Stony Brook–Ball State) | 20–41 | – | 17–41 |
| Spread | Ball State −21.1 | Ball State −13.5 | Ball State −24 |
| Total | 61.3 | 52.5 | 58 |
| Ball State win chance | 90% | – | – |
Line moved from Ball State −14.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Ball State −13.5 Won★ Over 52.5 Won
Spread: 7.6 pts better than Vegas for Ball State (sides with a gap this size have won 49% in the backtest). Total: 8.8 pts above Vegas (54% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Ball State by 21.12%
Stony Brook by 14+
8%
Stony Brook by 1–13
23%
Ball State by 1–13
67%
Ball State by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Stony Brook | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Ball State |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.238 | Offense EPA / play | −0.137 #126 |
| +0.285 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.145 #127 |
| −11.5% | Offense success rate | −7.1% #133 |
| +9.2% | Defense success rate allowed | +5.6% #131 |
| −0.119 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.005 #90 |
| −0.299 | Passing EPA / play | −0.210 #129 |
| +0.166 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.092 #112 |
| +0.306 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.192 #122 |
| −10.1 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −7.9 #119 |
| +19.7 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +8.7 #129 |
| Situational | ||
| −17.1% | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −7.5% #122 |
| +9.9% | Passing-down success allowed | +1.3% #77 |
| −2.21 | Points per drive | −0.87 #113 |
| +1.73 | Points per drive allowed | +1.25 #130 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.56 | Line yards per rush | −0.08 #106 |
| +0.46 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.02 #63 |
| +5.2% | Runs stuffed at the line | −1.9% #67 |
| −0.4% | Opponent runs stuffed | +1.7% #42 |
| +0.2% | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +1.5% #130 |
| −4.4% | Havoc created | −1.0% #84 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.240 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.103 #22 |
| −0.022 | Passing explosiveness | +0.119 #62 |
| −0.53 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.27 #92 |
| +0.203 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.000 #62 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 50% | Run rate | 56% #61 |
| n/a | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | +25.2 #1 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Stony Brook | Season to date | Ball State |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | Record | 1-4 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 0-2 |
| 0-0 | Home | 1-1 |
| 0-1 | Away | 0-3 |
| 0-1 | Against the spread | 2-3 |
| 1-0 | Over/under | 4-1 |
| 17.0 / 41.0 | Points for / against | 19.2 / 37.8 |
| -24.0 | Avg margin | -18.6 |
| -10.5 | Avg vs. the spread | -3.7 |
| 69.2 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 52.8 |
Stony Brook: last games
No games yet.
Ball State: last 1 games
| L3-56 |
