Final
Sat, Sep 12, 1:00 PM ET
Kelly/Shorts Stadium · 84° · wind 12 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Colgate–CMU) | 18–36 | – | 10–13 |
| Spread | CMU −18.2 | CMU −18.5 | CMU −3 |
| Total | 53.3 | 48.5 | 23 |
| Central Michigan win chance | 87% | – | – |
Line moved from CMU −23.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Colgate +18.5 Won★ Over 48.5 Lost
Spread: 0.3 pts better than Vegas for Colgate (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 4.8 pts above Vegas (50% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around CMU by 18.22%
Colgate by 14+
11%
Colgate by 1–13
27%
Central Michigan by 1–13
60%
Central Michigan by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Colgate | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | CMU |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.223 | Offense EPA / play | −0.134 #119 |
| +0.256 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.138 #116 |
| −8.8% | Offense success rate | −6.8% #125 |
| +12.4% | Defense success rate allowed | +7.7% #131 |
| −0.151 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.048 #84 |
| −0.148 | Passing EPA / play | −0.093 #98 |
| +0.188 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.164 #126 |
| +0.252 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.091 #89 |
| −14.9 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −10.4 #132 |
| +15.6 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +7.9 #113 |
| Situational | ||
| −2.7% | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −7.8% #126 |
| +7.7% | Passing-down success allowed | +6.3% #120 |
| −2.48 | Points per drive | −0.93 #112 |
| +2.38 | Points per drive allowed | +1.53 #126 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.42 | Line yards per rush | −0.23 #90 |
| +0.58 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.50 #131 |
| +4.2% | Runs stuffed at the line | −0.7% #43 |
| −2.0% | Opponent runs stuffed | −5.4% #134 |
| +3.1% | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +1.7% #112 |
| −2.6% | Havoc created | −2.4% #108 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.030 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.014 #71 |
| +0.235 | Passing explosiveness | −0.230 #137 |
| −0.36 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.36 #111 |
| +0.038 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.225 #5 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 49% | Run rate | 59% #9 |
| n/a | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −6.4 #53 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Colgate | Season to date | CMU |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | Record | 3-2 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 1-0 |
| 0-0 | Home | 3-0 |
| 0-1 | Away | 0-2 |
| 1-0 | Against the spread | 2-3 |
| 0-1 | Over/under | 2-3 |
| 10.0 / 13.0 | Points for / against | 17.6 / 25.4 |
| -3.0 | Avg margin | -7.8 |
| +15.5 | Avg vs. the spread | -1.9 |
| 65.8 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 46.6 |
Colgate: last games
No games yet.
Central Michigan: last 1 games
| L7-38 |
