Final
Sat, Sep 12, 1:00 PM ET
Yager Stadium · 78° · wind 7 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Holy Cross–Miami (OH)) | 11–46 | – | 7–45 |
| Spread | Miami (OH) −35.4 | Miami (OH) −30.5 | Miami (OH) −38 |
| Total | 56.7 | 46.5 | 52 |
| Miami (OH) win chance | 99% | – | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Miami (OH) −30.5 Won★ Over 46.5 Won
Spread: 4.9 pts better than Vegas for Miami (OH) (sides with a gap this size have won 54% in the backtest). Total: 10.2 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Miami (OH) by 35.40%
Holy Cross by 14+
1%
Holy Cross by 1–13
8%
Miami (OH) by 1–13
91%
Miami (OH) by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Holy Cross | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Miami (OH) |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.377 | Offense EPA / play | −0.030 #78 |
| +0.311 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.103 #106 |
| −13.4% | Offense success rate | −3.5% #115 |
| +10.3% | Defense success rate allowed | +2.2% #88 |
| −0.312 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.049 #111 |
| −0.380 | Passing EPA / play | −0.026 #69 |
| +0.300 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.080 #106 |
| +0.202 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.140 #107 |
| −22.6 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −4.9 #97 |
| +15.5 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +7.3 #119 |
| Situational | ||
| −15.9% | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −2.9% #90 |
| +7.3% | Passing-down success allowed | +3.1% #103 |
| −3.09 | Points per drive | −0.46 #90 |
| +2.18 | Points per drive allowed | +0.82 #119 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.78 | Line yards per rush | −0.12 #111 |
| +0.65 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.14 #102 |
| +7.7% | Runs stuffed at the line | −4.7% #26 |
| −4.6% | Opponent runs stuffed | −0.2% #72 |
| +7.0% | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −3.2% #27 |
| −3.9% | Havoc created | −2.0% #106 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.135 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.138 #130 |
| +0.283 | Passing explosiveness | +0.301 #9 |
| −0.75 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.40 #113 |
| +0.079 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.024 #75 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 56% | Run rate | 52% #115 |
| n/a | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | +11.4 #16 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Holy Cross | Season to date | Miami (OH) |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | Record | 2-3 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 0-1 |
| 0-0 | Home | 2-1 |
| 0-1 | Away | 0-2 |
| 0-1 | Against the spread | 3-2 |
| 1-0 | Over/under | 4-1 |
| 7.0 / 45.0 | Points for / against | 26.8 / 29.2 |
| -38.0 | Avg margin | -2.4 |
| -7.5 | Avg vs. the spread | -4.9 |
| 58.0 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 50.0 |
Holy Cross: last games
No games yet.
Miami (OH): last 1 games
| L14-59 |
