Final
Sat, Sep 12, 6:00 PM ET
Peden Stadium · 73° · wind 6 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (JXST–Ohio) | 23–33 | – | 27–29 |
| Spread | Ohio −9.8 | Ohio −1.5 | Ohio −2 |
| Total | 56.0 | 48.5 | 56 |
| Ohio win chance | 73% | – | – |
Line moved from Ohio −2.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Ohio −1.5 Won★ Over 48.5 Won
Spread: 8.3 pts better than Vegas for Ohio (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 7.5 pts above Vegas (52% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Ohio by 9.87%
Jacksonville State by 14+
20%
Jacksonville State by 1–13
33%
Ohio by 1–13
40%
Ohio by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| JXST | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Ohio |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.129 #116 | Offense EPA / play | −0.037 #73 |
| +0.103 #93 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.148 #121 |
| −3.3% #97 | Offense success rate | −2.2% #78 |
| +6.4% #122 | Defense success rate allowed | +5.2% #108 |
| −0.125 #117 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.029 #44 |
| −0.116 #107 | Passing EPA / play | −0.141 #113 |
| +0.184 #129 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.192 #131 |
| −0.050 #28 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.085 #86 |
| −7.4 #116 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −2.4 #74 |
| +7.0 #107 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +6.6 #105 |
| Situational | ||
| −6.0% #118 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −6.4% #119 |
| +3.6% #92 | Passing-down success allowed | +9.0% #134 |
| −0.53 #85 | Points per drive | −0.48 #82 |
| +1.13 #101 | Points per drive allowed | +0.79 #86 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.42 #122 | Line yards per rush | +0.06 #36 |
| +0.37 #115 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.35 #110 |
| +3.7% #111 | Runs stuffed at the line | −2.4% #24 |
| −2.5% #103 | Opponent runs stuffed | −1.6% #85 |
| +1.4% #105 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +0.0% #67 |
| −2.7% #114 | Havoc created | −1.2% #85 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.006 #57 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.030 #48 |
| −0.048 #96 | Passing explosiveness | +0.014 #66 |
| −0.15 #64 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.22 #83 |
| +0.040 #98 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.072 #110 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 55% #28 | Run rate | 56% #22 |
| −23.5 #97 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | +7.2 #21 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| JXST | Season to date | Ohio |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 3-2 |
| 1-0 | Conference | 1-0 |
| 3-0 | Home | 2-0 |
| 0-2 | Away | 1-2 |
| 3-2 | Against the spread | 2-3 |
| 3-2 | Over/under | 3-2 |
| 27.4 / 21.8 | Points for / against | 26.8 / 26.8 |
| +5.6 | Avg margin | +0.0 |
| +0.6 | Avg vs. the spread | -1.4 |
| 56.0 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 61.8 |
Jacksonville State: last 2 games
| W49-7 | |
| L7-33 |
Ohio: last 1 games
| L21-49 |
