Final
Sat, Sep 26, 3:30 PM ET
UB Stadium · 67° · wind 9 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Robert Morris–Buffalo) | 14–42 | – | 28–31 |
| Spread | Buffalo −27.4 | Buffalo −27.5 | Buffalo −3 |
| Total | 56.0 | 46.5 | 59 |
| Buffalo win chance | 96% | – | – |
Line moved from Buffalo −28.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Robert Morris +27.5 Won★ Over 46.5 Won
Spread: 0.1 pts better than Vegas for Robert Morris (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 9.5 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Buffalo by 27.41%
Robert Morris by 14+
4%
Robert Morris by 1–13
16%
Buffalo by 1–13
80%
Buffalo by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Robert Morris | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Buffalo |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.359 | Offense EPA / play | −0.121 #111 |
| +0.217 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.152 #124 |
| −17.9% | Offense success rate | −10.6% #138 |
| +7.5% | Defense success rate allowed | +2.2% #85 |
| −0.518 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.087 #121 |
| −0.183 | Passing EPA / play | −0.177 #115 |
| +0.291 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.050 #90 |
| +0.142 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.255 #130 |
| −24.8 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −6.9 #107 |
| +14.6 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +11.4 #133 |
| Situational | ||
| −16.8% | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −8.0% #123 |
| +4.9% | Passing-down success allowed | +2.3% #95 |
| −3.51 | Points per drive | −1.10 #118 |
| +1.77 | Points per drive allowed | +0.80 #114 |
| Trenches | ||
| −1.27 | Line yards per rush | −0.32 #129 |
| +0.99 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.31 #118 |
| +13.0% | Runs stuffed at the line | +1.4% #117 |
| −7.6% | Opponent runs stuffed | −1.3% #90 |
| +2.6% | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +1.0% #114 |
| −1.8% | Havoc created | −0.8% #77 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.201 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.181 #11 |
| +0.424 | Passing explosiveness | +0.052 #91 |
| −1.29 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.29 #92 |
| +0.097 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.334 #137 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 53% | Run rate | 50% #119 |
| −16.5 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −8.9 #55 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Robert Morris | Season to date | Buffalo |
|---|---|---|
| 0-2 | Record | 2-3 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 0-1 |
| 0-0 | Home | 2-1 |
| 0-2 | Away | 0-2 |
| 1-1 | Against the spread | 1-4 |
| 2-0 | Over/under | 3-2 |
| 19.0 / 38.0 | Points for / against | 20.4 / 30.6 |
| -19.0 | Avg margin | -10.2 |
| +8.0 | Avg vs. the spread | -7.1 |
| 58.0 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 70.2 |
Robert Morris: last 1 games
| L10-45 |
Buffalo: last 3 games
| L13-55 | |
| L20-33 | |
| W21-17 |
