Final
Sat, Oct 3, 3:30 PM ET
Dix Stadium · 64° · wind 7 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Ohio–Kent State) | 33–20 | – | 13–10 |
| Spread | Ohio −12.8 | Ohio −3.5 | Ohio −3 |
| Total | 52.9 | 50.5 | 23 |
| Kent State win chance | 21% | – | – |
Line moved from Ohio −5.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Ohio −3.5 Lost★ Over 50.5 Lost
Spread: 9.3 pts better than Vegas for Ohio (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 2.4 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Ohio by 12.847%
Ohio by 14+
32%
Ohio by 1–13
16%
Kent State by 1–13
5%
Kent State by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Ohio | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Kent State |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.009 #66 | Offense EPA / play | −0.180 #128 |
| +0.187 #125 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.139 #104 |
| −2.5% #86 | Offense success rate | −11.7% #138 |
| +5.3% #99 | Defense success rate allowed | +7.9% #126 |
| +0.050 #43 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.209 #131 |
| −0.111 #96 | Passing EPA / play | −0.106 #94 |
| +0.126 #107 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.143 #112 |
| +0.275 #131 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.118 #93 |
| −2.8 #80 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −11.2 #130 |
| +9.0 #121 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +12.6 #133 |
| Situational | ||
| −4.2% #95 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −12.5% #136 |
| +10.3% #136 | Passing-down success allowed | +4.5% #98 |
| −0.49 #91 | Points per drive | −1.48 #130 |
| +1.23 #110 | Points per drive allowed | +2.88 #137 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.19 #23 | Line yards per rush | −0.48 #122 |
| +0.14 #74 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.50 #122 |
| −5.2% #3 | Runs stuffed at the line | +5.3% #123 |
| +0.9% #46 | Opponent runs stuffed | −3.4% #107 |
| −0.8% #47 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +2.2% #113 |
| −0.6% #67 | Havoc created | −2.1% #103 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.017 #72 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.036 #86 |
| −0.013 #77 | Passing explosiveness | +0.329 #5 |
| −0.66 #135 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.61 #130 |
| +0.120 #117 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.057 #59 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 56% #25 | Run rate | 56% #30 |
| −13.6 #101 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −6.5 #42 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Ohio | Season to date | Kent State |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 2-3 |
| 1-0 | Conference | 1-1 |
| 2-0 | Home | 2-1 |
| 1-2 | Away | 0-2 |
| 2-3 | Against the spread | 3-2 |
| 3-2 | Over/under | 3-2 |
| 26.8 / 26.8 | Points for / against | 15.0 / 31.4 |
| +0.0 | Avg margin | -16.4 |
| -1.4 | Avg vs. the spread | -0.6 |
| 61.8 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 54.2 |
Ohio: last 4 games
| W35-7 | |
| L36-41 | |
| W29-27 | |
| L21-49 |
Kent State: last 4 games
| W26-13 | |
| L3-59 | |
| W36-15 | |
| L0-57 |
