Final
Sat, Oct 3, 3:30 PM ET
Yager Stadium · 68° · wind 9 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Bowling Green–Miami (OH)) | 15–32 | – | 24–20 |
| Spread | Miami (OH) −17.3 | Miami (OH) −10.5 | Bowling Green −4 |
| Total | 47.2 | 41.5 | 44 |
| Miami (OH) win chance | 86% | – | – |
Line moved from Miami (OH) −15.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Miami (OH) −10.5 Lost★ Over 41.5 Won
Spread: 6.8 pts better than Vegas for Miami (OH) (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 5.7 pts above Vegas (49% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Miami (OH) by 17.32%
Bowling Green by 14+
11%
Bowling Green by 1–13
28%
Miami (OH) by 1–13
58%
Miami (OH) by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Bowling Green | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Miami (OH) |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.295 #138 | Offense EPA / play | +0.039 #48 |
| +0.089 #96 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.050 #77 |
| −10.1% #136 | Offense success rate | −0.9% #80 |
| +5.5% #121 | Defense success rate allowed | +2.2% #85 |
| −0.292 #137 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.082 #115 |
| −0.258 #129 | Passing EPA / play | +0.244 #8 |
| +0.128 #116 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.066 #90 |
| +0.009 #54 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.105 #89 |
| −15.7 #138 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −3.3 #84 |
| +7.1 #117 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +5.8 #105 |
| Situational | ||
| −13.1% #137 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −2.2% #75 |
| −3.3% #30 | Passing-down success allowed | +0.8% #79 |
| −1.70 #136 | Points per drive | +0.20 #48 |
| +1.42 #130 | Points per drive allowed | +0.61 #104 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.52 #134 | Line yards per rush | −0.16 #112 |
| +0.42 #126 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.05 #59 |
| +4.1% #130 | Runs stuffed at the line | −2.3% #63 |
| +0.1% #68 | Opponent runs stuffed | +1.1% #53 |
| +1.7% #124 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −0.7% #84 |
| −2.6% #111 | Havoc created | −3.2% #123 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.327 #136 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.107 #115 |
| +0.124 #62 | Passing explosiveness | +0.387 #7 |
| −0.91 #137 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.14 #69 |
| −0.008 #65 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.025 #78 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 60% #27 | Run rate | 54% #87 |
| −0.2 #19 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −8.8 #64 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Bowling Green | Season to date | Miami (OH) |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 2-3 |
| 1-0 | Conference | 0-1 |
| 0-2 | Home | 2-1 |
| 1-2 | Away | 0-2 |
| 2-3 | Against the spread | 3-2 |
| 3-2 | Over/under | 4-1 |
| 11.4 / 33.0 | Points for / against | 26.8 / 29.2 |
| -21.6 | Avg margin | -2.4 |
| -5.7 | Avg vs. the spread | -4.9 |
| 48.6 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 50.0 |
Bowling Green: last 4 games
| L6-14 | |
| L7-55 | |
| L7-56 | |
| L13-20 |
Miami (OH): last 4 games
| W24-21 | |
| L31-35 | |
| W45-7 | |
| L14-59 |
