Final
Sat, Sep 26, 6:00 PM ET
Pitbull Stadium · 81° · wind 5 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (LIU–FIU) | 6–44 | – | 3–20 |
| Spread | FIU −37.2 | FIU −37.5 | FIU −17 |
| Total | 50.0 | 54.5 | 23 |
| Florida International win chance | 99% | – | – |
Line moved from FIU −35.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ LIU +37.5 Won★ Under 54.5 Won
Spread: 0.3 pts better than Vegas for Long Island University (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 4.5 pts below Vegas (49% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around FIU by 37.20%
Long Island University by 14+
1%
Long Island University by 1–13
6%
Florida International by 1–13
93%
Florida International by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| LIU | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | FIU |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.388 | Offense EPA / play | −0.165 #127 |
| +0.284 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.025 #43 |
| −16.0% | Offense success rate | −5.1% #119 |
| +14.5% | Defense success rate allowed | −1.3% #47 |
| −0.245 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.150 #132 |
| −0.440 | Passing EPA / play | −0.197 #118 |
| +0.243 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.091 #23 |
| +0.366 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.032 #69 |
| −23.2 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −11.5 #134 |
| +18.5 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −1.7 #50 |
| Situational | ||
| −13.1% | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −4.2% #92 |
| +6.5% | Passing-down success allowed | −3.9% #26 |
| −2.75 | Points per drive | −1.43 #135 |
| +2.70 | Points per drive allowed | −0.21 #45 |
| Trenches | ||
| −1.11 | Line yards per rush | −0.18 #121 |
| +0.98 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.32 #20 |
| +13.8% | Runs stuffed at the line | +0.5% #106 |
| −7.4% | Opponent runs stuffed | +0.8% #55 |
| +5.5% | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −1.1% #80 |
| −4.8% | Havoc created | −0.5% #73 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.144 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.156 #127 |
| −0.041 | Passing explosiveness | −0.019 #114 |
| −0.53 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.84 #136 |
| +0.018 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.026 #54 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 60% | Run rate | 53% #100 |
| −4.8 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −10.7 #69 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| LIU | Season to date | FIU |
|---|---|---|
| 0-2 | Record | 2-2 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 0-0 |
| 0-0 | Home | 2-0 |
| 0-2 | Away | 0-2 |
| 1-1 | Against the spread | 2-2 |
| 0-2 | Over/under | 1-3 |
| 4.5 / 35.5 | Points for / against | 18.0 / 14.5 |
| -31.0 | Avg margin | +3.5 |
| +10.0 | Avg vs. the spread | -3.0 |
| 50.7 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 73.5 |
Long Island University: last 1 games
| L6-51 |
Florida International: last 3 games
| L10-16 | |
| W33-20 | |
| L9-19 |
