Final
Sat, Sep 12, 12:00 PM ET
Bridgeforth Stadium · 79° · wind 12 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Wagner–James Madison) | 1–48 | – | 3–87 |
| Spread | James Madison −46.8 | James Madison −46.5 | James Madison −84 |
| Total | 48.7 | 56.5 | 90 |
| James Madison win chance | 100% | – | – |
Line moved from James Madison −45.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ James Madison −46.5 Won★ Under 56.5 Lost
Spread: 0.3 pts better than Vegas for James Madison (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 7.8 pts below Vegas (54% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around James Madison by 46.80%
Wagner by 14+
0%
Wagner by 1–13
2%
James Madison by 1–13
98%
James Madison by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Wagner | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | James Madison |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.567 | Offense EPA / play | −0.025 #72 |
| +0.261 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.008 #63 |
| −21.2% | Offense success rate | −2.9% #106 |
| +11.7% | Defense success rate allowed | −1.2% #44 |
| −0.494 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.030 #66 |
| −0.511 | Passing EPA / play | −0.045 #78 |
| +0.175 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.005 #54 |
| +0.203 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.066 #82 |
| −29.2 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −5.2 #100 |
| +17.7 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −1.1 #47 |
| Situational | ||
| −20.7% | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −4.6% #103 |
| +7.2% | Passing-down success allowed | +2.8% #99 |
| −4.00 | Points per drive | −0.68 #102 |
| +2.18 | Points per drive allowed | +0.05 #60 |
| Trenches | ||
| −1.38 | Line yards per rush | +0.01 #90 |
| +0.45 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.20 #31 |
| +13.7% | Runs stuffed at the line | +0.7% #111 |
| −3.8% | Opponent runs stuffed | +0.1% #64 |
| +9.0% | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −0.7% #92 |
| −3.7% | Havoc created | −1.0% #86 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.067 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.003 #79 |
| −0.146 | Passing explosiveness | +0.181 #35 |
| −1.51 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.06 #49 |
| −0.232 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.106 #108 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 55% | Run rate | 58% #43 |
| n/a | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −5.8 #60 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Wagner | Season to date | James Madison |
|---|---|---|
| 0-2 | Record | 5-0 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 2-0 |
| 0-0 | Home | 3-0 |
| 0-2 | Away | 2-0 |
| 1-1 | Against the spread | 5-0 |
| 1-1 | Over/under | 3-2 |
| 5.0 / 68.0 | Points for / against | 44.8 / 13.2 |
| -63.0 | Avg margin | +31.6 |
| -10.5 | Avg vs. the spread | +17.4 |
| 48.0 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 60.2 |
Wagner: last games
No games yet.
James Madison: last 1 games
| W20-13 |
