Final
Sat, Sep 12, 7:30 PM ET
Brooks Stadium (SC) · 79° · wind 8 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Fordham–CCU) | 7–47 | – | 7–45 |
| Spread | CCU −40.0 | CCU −36.5 | CCU −38 |
| Total | 53.6 | 54.5 | 52 |
| Coastal Carolina win chance | 99% | – | – |
Line moved from CCU −31.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ CCU −36.5 Won★ Under 54.5 Won
Spread: 3.5 pts better than Vegas for Coastal Carolina (sides with a gap this size have won 52% in the backtest). Total: 0.9 pts below Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around CCU by 40.00%
Fordham by 14+
1%
Fordham by 1–13
5%
Coastal Carolina by 1–13
95%
Coastal Carolina by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Fordham | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | CCU |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.457 | Offense EPA / play | −0.039 #78 |
| +0.239 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.083 #86 |
| −16.8% | Offense success rate | −2.7% #85 |
| +16.6% | Defense success rate allowed | +3.9% #92 |
| −0.375 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.145 #125 |
| −0.501 | Passing EPA / play | +0.003 #59 |
| +0.293 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.060 #82 |
| +0.110 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.192 #121 |
| −24.8 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −4.5 #94 |
| +18.6 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +7.6 #111 |
| Situational | ||
| −16.9% | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +0.5% #49 |
| +15.1% | Passing-down success allowed | +3.6% #91 |
| −3.28 | Points per drive | −0.76 #102 |
| +3.12 | Points per drive allowed | +0.83 #88 |
| Trenches | ||
| −1.01 | Line yards per rush | −0.44 #124 |
| +0.83 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.14 #78 |
| +9.0% | Runs stuffed at the line | +5.2% #129 |
| −6.0% | Opponent runs stuffed | −2.5% #100 |
| +5.3% | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +3.5% #133 |
| −5.5% | Havoc created | −1.6% #97 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.142 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.104 #115 |
| −0.148 | Passing explosiveness | +0.103 #26 |
| −0.83 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.09 #52 |
| −0.376 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.099 #120 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 45% | Run rate | 50% #91 |
| −8.5 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −7.0 #57 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Fordham | Season to date | CCU |
|---|---|---|
| 0-2 | Record | 1-4 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 0-1 |
| 0-0 | Home | 1-2 |
| 0-2 | Away | 0-2 |
| 1-1 | Against the spread | 2-3 |
| 0-2 | Over/under | 3-2 |
| 3.5 / 41.5 | Points for / against | 24.8 / 25.0 |
| -38.0 | Avg margin | -0.2 |
| +1.0 | Avg vs. the spread | -1.4 |
| 44.3 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 62.8 |
Fordham: last 1 games
| L0-38 |
Coastal Carolina: last 1 games
| L24-31 |
