Final
Sat, Sep 5, 7:00 PM ET
AmFirst Stadium · 84° · wind 8 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (EKU–JXST) | 14–39 | – | 7–49 |
| Spread | JXST −25.7 | JXST −22.5 | JXST −42 |
| Total | 53.0 | 51.5 | 56 |
| Jacksonville State win chance | 95% | – | – |
Line moved from JXST −19.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ JXST −22.5 Won★ Over 51.5 Won
Spread: 3.2 pts better than Vegas for Jacksonville State (sides with a gap this size have won 54% in the backtest). Total: 1.5 pts above Vegas (52% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around JXST by 25.71%
Eastern Kentucky by 14+
5%
Eastern Kentucky by 1–13
18%
Jacksonville State by 1–13
77%
Jacksonville State by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| EKU | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | JXST |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.254 | Offense EPA / play | −0.066 #104 |
| +0.176 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.089 #106 |
| −12.1% | Offense success rate | −2.7% #106 |
| +7.6% | Defense success rate allowed | +3.6% #112 |
| −0.134 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.002 #91 |
| −0.367 | Passing EPA / play | −0.111 #112 |
| +0.156 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.060 #101 |
| +0.176 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.112 #106 |
| −19.1 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −5.2 #104 |
| +9.3 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +5.3 #108 |
| Situational | ||
| −8.4% | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −3.5% #92 |
| +10.4% | Passing-down success allowed | +2.6% #111 |
| −2.22 | Points per drive | −0.70 #120 |
| +1.65 | Points per drive allowed | +0.59 #105 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.35 | Line yards per rush | +0.02 #92 |
| +0.39 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.04 #77 |
| −1.6% | Runs stuffed at the line | −0.6% #107 |
| −3.6% | Opponent runs stuffed | −0.5% #89 |
| −1.2% | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −0.7% #92 |
| −6.9% | Havoc created | −0.7% #74 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.017 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.028 #32 |
| −0.252 | Passing explosiveness | +0.104 #69 |
| −0.23 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.18 #89 |
| −0.030 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.040 #119 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 58% | Run rate | 63% #14 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| EKU | Season to date | JXST |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | Record | 3-2 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 1-0 |
| 0-0 | Home | 3-0 |
| 0-1 | Away | 0-2 |
| 0-1 | Against the spread | 3-2 |
| 1-0 | Over/under | 3-2 |
| 7.0 / 49.0 | Points for / against | 27.4 / 21.8 |
| -42.0 | Avg margin | +5.6 |
| -19.5 | Avg vs. the spread | +0.6 |
| 62.2 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 56.0 |
Eastern Kentucky: last games
No games yet.
Jacksonville State: last 1 games
| L7-33 |
