Final
Sat, Sep 12, 12:00 PM ET
Williams Stadium (VA) · 77° · wind 7 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Gardner-Webb–Liberty) | 13–43 | – | 23–24 |
| Spread | Liberty −30.1 | Liberty −28.5 | Liberty −1 |
| Total | 55.3 | 55.5 | 47 |
| Liberty win chance | 97% | – | – |
Line moved from Liberty −25.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Liberty −28.5 Lost★ Under 55.5 Won
Spread: 1.6 pts better than Vegas for Liberty (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 0.2 pts below Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Liberty by 30.10%
Gardner-Webb by 14+
3%
Gardner-Webb by 1–13
13%
Liberty by 1–13
84%
Liberty by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Gardner-Webb | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Liberty |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.235 | Offense EPA / play | −0.072 #104 |
| +0.237 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.139 #117 |
| −12.0% | Offense success rate | −1.6% #71 |
| +8.9% | Defense success rate allowed | +3.1% #76 |
| −0.237 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.051 #86 |
| −0.207 | Passing EPA / play | −0.079 #94 |
| +0.173 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.117 #112 |
| +0.280 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.112 #93 |
| −14.9 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −6.3 #105 |
| +14.4 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +2.6 #76 |
| Situational | ||
| −8.0% | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −0.1% #57 |
| +11.2% | Passing-down success allowed | +2.9% #84 |
| −2.26 | Points per drive | −0.83 #107 |
| +1.94 | Points per drive allowed | +0.62 #70 |
| Trenches | ||
| −1.12 | Line yards per rush | −0.26 #97 |
| +0.36 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.27 #103 |
| +14.3% | Runs stuffed at the line | −1.5% #35 |
| −1.8% | Opponent runs stuffed | −0.9% #63 |
| +4.8% | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −0.9% #41 |
| −0.2% | Havoc created | −3.0% #119 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.002 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.079 #109 |
| +0.055 | Passing explosiveness | +0.062 #48 |
| −0.64 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.40 #121 |
| +0.133 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.075 #112 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 44% | Run rate | 58% #14 |
| n/a | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −5.7 #52 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Gardner-Webb | Season to date | Liberty |
|---|---|---|
| 0-2 | Record | 4-1 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 1-0 |
| 0-0 | Home | 2-0 |
| 0-2 | Away | 2-1 |
| 2-0 | Against the spread | 3-2 |
| 1-1 | Over/under | 2-3 |
| 29.0 / 30.0 | Points for / against | 30.4 / 17.8 |
| -1.0 | Avg margin | +12.6 |
| +25.5 | Avg vs. the spread | +3.3 |
| 73.5 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 63.4 |
Gardner-Webb: last games
No games yet.
Liberty: last 1 games
| L13-20 |
